UK analysts and the media celebrated the 'surge in UK exports' based on the PMI only a week ago; and will no doubt write off this latest setback as being 'weather related' - alongside the retail sales number (even though Internet sales also fell on the month); house prices; mortgage approvals; and Leeds United's alarming dip in form. Some even claimed that the cold weather could have impacted exports more than imports, even though one might imagine the respective journeys involved are quite similar, save for being in opposite directions.

 

But the weather argument does not really hold any, er, ice. Other countries across Europe - as well as the US - also had unseasonably cold starts to the year. As our chart shows, the UK was not alone. Indeed, the Norwegians endured temperatures of -40c, the point at which even 100% proof Vodka freezes! But they still managed to get to work and increase production. Germany, France, Italy and much of the US also increased production - indeed they positively boomed. In fact, the only other countries to record a drop in production for which we could find seasonally-adjusted data were Latvia and Sweden - Europe's other two laggard economies.

 

This could be a reflection of how poorly the UK copes with bad weather, or perhaps the PMI will be vindicated, belatedly, in next month's data. Or maybe, there is more than just snow at work here. Either way, a negative Q1 is not out of the question.