UK exports/output plunge

On 10/03/2010, by Danny Gabay. Keywords: Manufacturing

While the PMI manufacturing survey has been at multi-year highs since the start of the year - apparently boosted by surging export orders, which are at 15-year highs - the official data paint a rather different picture. Both output and export volumes plunged in January. January’s 0.9% m/m fall in manufacturing reversed the gain of the previous month and, in turn, dragged industrial production down by 0.4% m/m. Meanwhile exports fell by 6% on the month – the largest drop in several years and since sterling began to depreciate.

UK analysts and the media celebrated the 'surge in UK exports' based on the PMI only a week ago; and will no doubt write off this latest setback as being 'weather related' - alongside the retail sales number (even though Internet sales also fell on the month); house prices; mortgage approvals; and Leeds United's alarming dip in form. Some even claimed that the cold weather could have impacted exports more than imports, even though one might imagine the respective journeys involved are quite similar, save for being in opposite directions.

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