The BEST UK forecast
Drawing on its extensive experience of forecasting at the Bank of England, Fathom Financial Consulting has replicated the Bank of England Quarterly Model (BEQM) in its Bank of England Simulation Tool (BEST). Our aim is to mirror as accurately as possible the analysis and the forecast process at the Bank of England, for the purposes of our own Monetary Policy Forum.
Each quarter, we:
- Reproduce the Bank’s forecast from the previous quarter, and use BEST to assess the impact of the news in the data over the quarter, to produce a “neutral” forecast for the current quarter
- Use BEST to create Fathom's new forecast for the UK, based on Fathom's own in-depth analysis of the prospects and key risks to the UK outlook. This analysis forms the background to the forum's deliberations and the document plus supporting material is made available to MPF members ahead of the forum.
- Use the properties of BEST to identify the impact of the key risks that we perceive over the forecast horizon – the most interesting of these are written up, along with related analysis, in our Monetary Policy Forum policy papers, such as ‘TARP into the UK'.
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By 
Erik Britton and Danny Gabay
Erik Britton and Danny GabayPublished at its Monetary Policy Forum on Tuesday 8 November 2011, Fathom Consulting’s latest BEST UK forecast develops two scenarios for the UK – the central case, which anticipates a mild, domestically generated recession; and an alternative case that sees a much deeper recession triggered by a disorderly sovereign default in the Euro Area. Please note, this document should be read in conjunction with the presentation - also available to download on this page.
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By Fathom Team
Presented at its Monetary Policy Forum on Tuesday 8 November 2011, Fathom Consulting’s latest BEST UK forecast develops two scenarios for the UK – the central case, which anticipates a mild, domestically generated recession; and an alternative case that sees a much deeper recession triggered by a disorderly sovereign default in the Euro Area. Please note, this document should be read in conjunction with the executive summary - also available to download on this page.
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By Erik Britton
Erik BrittonPublished ahead of its Monetary Policy Forum on Tuesday 2 August 2011, Fathom Consulting’s BEST UK forecast for Q3 2011 urges the government not to abandon its planned austerity package. It argues that in the case of a euro area or global sovereign debt crisis, a recession in the UK is unavoidable - but the alternative case where austerity is abandoned would be disastrous.
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By Fathom Team
Published ahead of its Monetary Policy Forum on Wednesday 4 May 2011, Fathom Consulting’s BEST UK forecast for Q2 2011 argues that the UK’s weak recovery from the recession is no surprise and maybe the best the UK can hope for, given the scale of government and consumer debt that was accumulated over the preceding decade. This will feel very different to a ‘normal’ recovery. But even that weak outcome would be threatened by a U-turn on fiscal austerity – Spain is on a knife-edge and the UK is not far behind it.
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By Fathom Team
Published ahead of its Monetary Policy Forum on Wednesday 9 February 2011, Fathom Consulting’s BEST UK forecast for Q1 2009 argues that stimulative monetary policy is still needed to accommodate the essential fiscal austerity.
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