The BEST UK forecast

Drawing on its extensive experience of forecasting at the Bank of England, Fathom Financial Consulting has replicated the Bank of England Quarterly Model (BEQM) in its Bank of England Simulation Tool  (BEST). Our aim is to mirror as accurately as possible the analysis and the forecast process at the Bank of England, for the purposes of our own Monetary Policy Forum. 

Each quarter, we:

• Reproduce the Bank’s forecast from the previous quarter, and use BEST to assess the impact of the news in the data over the quarter, to produce a “neutral” forecast for the current quarter
   
• Use BEST to create Fathom's new forecast for the UK, based on Fathom's own in-depth analysis of the prospects and key risks to the UK outlook. This analysis forms the background to the forum's deliberations and the document plus supporting material is made available to MPF members ahead of the forum.
   
• Use the properties of BEST to identify the impact of the key risks that we perceive over the forecast horizon – the most interesting of these are written up, along with related analysis, in our Monetary Policy Forum policy papers, such as ‘TARP into the UK'.

Members can download forecast documents and policy papers using the search bar below.

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