Quarterly forecast

Fathom Consulting produces a regular quarterly G4 forecast for its clients. Outlined below is a snapshot of each forecast, including an executive summary available for download. Clients can also access the full forecast document, and search our archive using the green toolbar at the bottom of this page.

Q2 2010 | Walking the tightrope

Our latest forecast reflects the overwhelming uncertainty caused by unprecedented government deficits. Although its forecast predicts a gradual recovery, driven primarily by the United States and Asia, the risks to this central view are both much uglier and collectively more likely – hence the tightrope. The forecast presents two evils: weak growth with inflation, or even weaker growth and deflation.

DOWNLOAD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | DOWNLOAD FULL FORECAST

Q1 2010 | The end of empire

Our latest forecast for the G4 economies and optimal asset allocation, strikes a more optimistic tone, primarily reflecting its bullish outlook for the US. Fathom is overweight equities and underweight bonds for the first time since early 2008. The prospect of a G4 sovereign debt downgrade heightens the risk of a double-dip recession, particularly in Europe and the UK. 

DOWNLOAD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | DOWNLOAD FULL FORECAST

Q4 2009 | Risk reversal?

Our latest G4 outlook and asset allocation integrates probability-weighted forecasts for the G4 economies with their financial markets, in a fully consistent system. However, rather than using our model to construct scenarios for the economy and then seeing what that would imply for various asset prices, as we would normally do, this time around, our forecast starts from asset prices and considers what we would need to see from the real economy to justify them. And of course, where the key risks lie. Two intertwined and complicated questions therefore overshadow this quarter’s G4 Outlook: can the real economy justify the rally in risk assets since March – or are we already in another bubble? And can sovereigns bear the risk on their balance sheets?

DOWNLOAD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | DOWNLOAD FULL FORECAST

Q3 2009 | Lilies that fester

Our latest forecast for the G4 economies and their key asset prices, confirms that while the world economy is starting to slowly emerge from the deepest slump since the second world war, the UK is lagging behind.  It also warns of a significant risk of relapse, where the recovery plunges into a 'W' shape, or even takes an 'L' shaped course, repeating the Japanese 'lost decade' experience on a global scale.

DOWNLOAD EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | DOWNLOAD FULL FORECAST

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G4 Q2 2010: Walking the tightrope

By Fathom Team

The global economic recovery is still not guaranteed. There is tentative evidence that global growth may have already peaked. Published today, Fathom Consulting’s latest global economic outlook and optimal asset allocation reflects the overwhelming uncertainty caused by unprecedented government deficits.

• Full Details
• Download [Requires Login/Registration]

G4 Q1 2010: The end of empire

By Fathom Team

This quarter, our outlook for the G4 economies strikes a more optimistic tone, primarily reflecting its bullish outlook for the US. We are overweight equities and underweight bonds for the first time since early 2008. The prospect of a G4 sovereign debt downgrade heightens the risk of a double-dip recession, particularly in Europe and the UK.

• Full Details
• Download [Requires Login/Registration]

G4 Q4 2009: Risk reversal?

By Fathom Team

Our G4 Outlook integrates probability-weighted forecasts for the G4 economies with their financial markets, in a fully consistent system. However, rather than using our model to construct scenarios for the economy and then seeing what that would imply for various asset prices, as we would normally do, this time around, our forecast starts from asset prices and considers what we would need to see from the real economy to justify them. And of course, where the key risks lie. Two intertwined and complicated questions therefore overshadow this quarter’s G4 Outlook: can the real economy justify the rally in risk assets since March – or are we already in another bubble? And can sovereigns bear the risk on their balance sheets?

• Full Details
• Download [Requires Login/Registration]

G4 Q3 2009: Lilies that fester

By Fathom Team

Here, our latest forecast for the G4 economies and their key asset prices, confirms that while the world economy is starting to slowly emerge from the deepest slump since WW2, the UK is lagging behind. It also warns of a significant risk of relapse, where the recovery plunges into a ‘W’ shape, or even takes an ‘L’ shaped course, repeating the Japanese ‘lost decade’ experience on a global scale.

• Full Details
• Download [Requires Login/Registration]

BOE and BEST forecasts

By Erik Britton and Danny Gabay

- Short-term profile for inflation revised up, apparently reflecting ‘higher petrol prices and smaller falls in domestic utility bills than previously expected’ - But outlook still subdued -inflation is more likely to be below target in the medium term than above. Letter expected to be needed during Autumn (most likely September) - Impact of extra £50bn offset by greater degree of spare capacity as recession worse than previously thought

• Full Details
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