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Forecasts

GEMO 2016 Q4 update: ‘Trump Lite’ or ‘Donald Dark’?

In our Global Economic and Markets Outlook for 2016 Q4, formulated in October, our central scenario assumed a Hillary Clinton victory in last month’s US election. Our next …

GEMO 2016 Q4: When politics Trumps economics

The past 20 years have seen a dramatic redistribution of income from advanced economy workers to labourers in the fast-growing emerging economies, including China. Here we consider the …

GEMO 2016 Q3: Brexit wounds

The implications of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union take centre stage in our latest quarterly forecast, ‘Brexit Wounds’. In our central scenario, the UK flirts …

Q2 2016 Global outlook

Let’s get fiscal! Most major economies have implemented a combination of tighter fiscal, and looser monetary policy.

Q1 2016 Global outlook

Fed focus on medium term will increase pressure on China. Will the PBoC crack?

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