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Research Notes

Brexit-related uncertainty weighs on the UK labour market

The UK economy shed 56,000 jobs in the three months to October, but the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as a growing number of people left the …

Euro area sovereign default unlikely for now

The market-implied probability of default declined for all major euro area economies in November and, with the exception of Greece, remains well below 10%. Separately, Fathom calculates that …

Fathom’s ESIs shrug off euro area political uncertainty

Fathom’s latest Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro area remained unchanged at 1.4% in November, with the country-level indices confirming that…

UK firms shrug off November rate hike, but consumer mood darkens

Our UK Economic Sentiment Indicator, which distils information from numerous consumer and business surveys into one gauge of underlying economic activity, held steady at…

CMI 2.0 reaches a tipping point

According to our China Momentum Indicator 2.0 (CMI 2.0), real economic growth in China fell 0.1 percentage points to 6.9% in the twelve months to October. This marks …

Senate tax bill – corporate tax cuts in 2019?

The passing of a tax bill by the US Senate over the weekend might represent another hurdle cleared towards reforming the US tax code, but reconciling this bill …

Equity prices — beware of a correction

As Christmas approaches, leading stock indices continue to soar higher than the festive reindeer. The Dow Jones industrial Average is now 70% above its pre-crisis peak, with this …

Bank of Korea hikes for the first time in more than six years

Last night the Bank of Korea voted to raise the base rate for the first time since May 2011. It was increased by 25 basis points from a …

Lord of the RRiMs (Relative Risk Metrics)

Fathom’s relative risk metrics (RRiMs) compare the market-implied risk on assets denominated in one currency to assets denominated in other major currencies. In the euro area, markets view …

Globalisation’s downward pressure on prices set to ease

In our note ‘ The Phillips curve — rumours of its death are greatly exaggerated ’, we showed that the relationship between slack in the economy and price pressures is alive and kicking. However, expectations are more firmly anchored …

The Phillips curve — rumours of its death are greatly exaggerated

“Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated” is one of Mark Twain’s more frequently referenced quips. Leaving aside the fact that it is a slight misquotation, it …

Merkel and Macron — Europe’s ‘golden scenario’?

In the days following Angela Merkel’s narrow victory in the German elections, French president Emmanuel Macron was quick to reiterate his ambitious vision for the euro area, calling …

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