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Research Notes

FOMC to continue tightening monetary policy this year

• The Minutes to the FOMC’s meeting held last month showed that some Committee members are worried about low inflation  

The folly of data-dependent monetary policy

When it comes to hiring, businesses appear to have shrugged off Brexit related uncertainty, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.4%, the lowest in over 40 years.

Japan’s GDP – nothing more than a sugar high

Japan’s Cabinet Office takes up to seven weeks after the quarter-end to publish its preliminary GDP estimate, making it the last of the ‘Big four’ to do so. …

Another soft inflation print is unlikely to halt the Fed

• Many investors are sceptical of the Fed’s insistence that the recent declines in inflation are ‘transitory’, and today’s release will do little to bring those sceptics back …

Economic upswing in the euro area showing no signs of abating

Fathom’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for July show that confidence continues to strengthen across the euro area As part of the regular monthly refresh of the underlying data, …

Labour market reforms top of the agenda for Mr Macron

Almost three months after Emmanuel Macron was elected President of France, following a convincing victory over far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, attention now turns to the policies he …

UK MPC tries to have its cake and eat it

Yesterday, the UK Monetary Policy Committee tried to have its cake and eat it. It voted not to tighten policy at a time when inflation was significantly above …

Fixed income and currency Q3 outlook

In this note, we set out our expectations for major fixed income and currency markets over the coming months. We continue to expect the dollar to strengthen against …

ECB – why this time will be different

The US Fed has started to normalise interest rates, and historically when the Fed moved, the ECB tended to follow. This time might be different. Despite recent expectations …

Our expanded China Momentum Indicator shows growth rebounding – for now

We have long been sceptical of official Chinese GDP statistics. To gain a better insight into economic activity we developed our China Momentum Indicator (CMI), first published in …

India: despite medium-term uncertainty, a bright near-term outlook

Since 1990, India’s share of world economic output has doubled to 7.2%. However, its economy remains reliant on a relatively unproductive agricultural sector. In the medium term, increased …

Odds of a UK recession are now greater than even

Defying widespread expectation of a recession, the UK economy weathered the Brexit storm better than the majority of forecasters, ourselves included, anticipated. That was thanks, in large part, …

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