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Research Notes

Introducing Fathom’s latest quarterly forecast: what’s new?

We shall be discussing our updated economic and financial market forecasts with clients over the coming weeks. This document lays out the major changes to our view since …

Revisions to our key US economic forecasts

We have revised our key US GDP, inflation and interest rate forecasts on the back of last week’s budget deal, which raises government spending by an estimated $150 …

Euro area ESI ticks up; strong growth expected to continue this year

Fathom’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) use a variety of survey-based measures to provide a gauge of underlying economic activity. The headline ESI for the euro area increased by …

UK inflation set to moderate in 2018

The Fathom Inflation Trends (FIT) models are used to forecast short-term changes in the price level. Based upon our FIT model for the UK, we expect headline CPI …

Is the German economy overheating?

Fathom retains a pessimistic view of the euro area’s long-term prospects, unless progress is eventually made towards transforming the currency bloc into a fully-fledged fiscal union. We do, …

‘Hawkish’ MPC too sanguine about the prospect of a sharp slowdown in growth?

In what has been perceived as a ‘hawkish’ Inflation Report, the MPC concluded that more than two 25 basis point increases in interest rates would be necessary within …

Euro area default probabilities declined in January, but 2018 could still be the test

The market-implied probability of default declined in all countries in January and, with the exception of Greece, it remains significantly below 10%…

FMPI confirms record policy stimulus behind Europe’s strong cyclical upturn

The Fathom Macroeconomic Policy Indicator (FMPI) weights together measures of both the monetary and fiscal stance to summarise, in a single statistic, the degree of macroeconomic stimulus in… …

US GDP report highlights strong domestic economy

Today’s advance estimate of US 2017 Q4 GDP showed that the economy expanded at an annualised pace of 2.6% last quarter, a little more than our forecast, and …

Banking and sovereign debt reforms essential to the euro area’s future

In his first New Year’s address, Emmanuel Macron vowed to “reinvigorate European ambitions” while appealing to the French public not to be swayed by “nationalists” or “sceptics”. While …

Japan’s ESI edges higher, but it is too soon to declare victory

Our Japanese Economic Sentiment Indicator, which distils information from numerous consumer and business surveys, finished 2017 on a high. Pointing to annualised growth of more than…  

Strong US retail sales suggest GDP growth will exceed 3% (again) in Q4

US retail sales were strong for the fourth month running in December, suggesting that…

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