• Lost your password?

Research Notes

FEAOS: revamping our equity framework

The FEAOS (Fathom Equity Analyst Optimism Score) shows whether equity analysts expect earnings to grow at a faster or slower pace than the historical norm. We use FEAOS …

US auto debt: a look under the bonnet

There are some similarities between the US auto industry today and the US housing market in 2008. After years of rising auto debt, banks have tightened lending standards …

UK MPC almost reacts to above-expected inflation

In a Newsletter last month we argued that, with inflation set to exceed the MPC’s forecast, members’ resolve to keep policy on hold would soon be tested. We …

Euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator round-up

Economic sentiment across the world is on the up, with survey and hard economic data continuing to diverge, not only in the US, but across the euro area, …

Don’t forget about Italy

Private sector NPLs continue to plague the health of banks in the periphery. This is also reflected in equity prices, as banks with higher proportions of toxic loans …

Fathom’s US Economic Sentiment Indicator (USESI) for Q2 remains above 5%

Fathom’s Q2 USESI (our survey-based proxy for quarterly annualised US GDP growth) has been revised down from 5.3% to 5.2%. The revision follows an all-time high of 6.0% …

It’s the Phillips curve, stupid

The outlook for core inflation, and by extension labour compensation, is crucial to the ECB’s future monetary policy stance. The ECB has consistently over-predicted labour compensation growth causing …

Fathom’s UKESI slips to 0.4%

Our UK Economic Sentiment Indicator (UKESI), expanded to cover 13 consumer and business surveys from the previous 11, fell from 0.8% in April to 0.4% in May. This deterioration was broad-based, …

China is due a banking crisis

China’s ratio of private non-financial debt-to-GDP has now breached 200% – a quarter above what it was in the US ahead of the financial crisis in 2008. If …

China is due a banking crisis

China’s ratio of private non-financial debt-to-GDP has now breached 200% – a quarter above what it was in the US ahead of the financial crisis in 2008. If …

UK Election: exciting politics; dull economics – probably

The outlook for the UK economy is dire, and the election is unlikely to change that meaningfully. Impacts on the real economy will be small in most outcomes, …

Emerging market debt: a problem?

Some commentators have warned about a looming emerging market debt crisis due to increased borrowing in recent years. But outside of China, the increase in debt has not …

Download Content

Log in

If you don’t have a login please enter your details

captcha