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Research Notes

FOMC to hold fire for now

Although the minutes to the latest FOMC meeting reveal that participants agreed that it might be appropriate to raise the fed funds rate again “fairly soon”, we think …

Mexican economic growth to slow with peso facing downside risks

Quarterly GDP growth in Mexico was 0.7% in the final quarter of last year, with an annual expansion of 2.1% across 2016 as a whole. However, this year …

As Brazil eases significantly, its currency will be tested

The deceleration in Brazil’s headline inflation rate continued in February, easing to 5.0% mid-month, less than half the 10.4% rate recorded a year earlier. This disinflationary process has …

UK growth revised up, but the runes read ‘slowdown’

The UK economy expanded by 0.7% in the final quarter of 2016 according to the second estimate of GDP, revised up by 0.1 percentage point from the preliminary …

Chinese house price inflation allowed to slow temporarily

Despite the vast amount of spare capacity in the Chinese housing market, starts continued to outpace sales in 2016, as they have done since data were first published …

Sweden – a dangerous tug of war

Sweden’s monetary and macroprudential policies are locked in a dangerous tug of war. The bias is to loosen monetary policy further, but low interest rates are fuelling a …

Strong PMI data do not alter our neutral position on EA equities

The composite PMI jumped to 56.0, in line with our own expectations but above those of the consensus. Although we remain long-term euro area bears, today’s data confirm …

China’s love-hate relationship with credit

Our own measure of economic activity in China, our China Momentum Indicator, has climbed from a record low of 2.2% in January last year to 3.1% in December. …

Currency stability buys Egypt’s central bank time

The Central Bank of Egypt held its policy rate at 14.75% today in a further sign of stabilisation following the country’s currency flotation last November. The Egyptian pound …

Part-time Australia

Despite the latest data showing a decline in the unemployment rate, Australia’s labour market remains soft, with a worrying trend towards part-time work. While employment increased by 13,500 …

UK labour market’s softening trend continues

Data released today for the final quarter of 2016 show that the UK labour market continued to soften. Although employment grew by 37,000 in the three months to …

UK inflation still set to reach 3% this year

Headline UK CPI inflation rose by less than expected to 1.8% in January 2017, from 1.6% in December. Core inflation was unchanged at 1.6%. Transport (mainly fuel prices) …

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