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Research Notes

US economic growth increased in Q3 according to our ESI

Our US Economic Sentiment Indicator climbed from 4.9% in August to 5.9% in September, averaging…

How Trump’s revised tax plan might unfold

Two weeks ago Republican leaders unveiled a revised framework for reforming the US tax code. The proposal provided very little detail on key issues — this task has …

Euro area economic sentiment showing little signs of abating despite taper talk

Our latest Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for September show that confidence continues to…

Preliminary estimates of Q3 GDP growth cement rate rise and recession risk

Using a combination of official and survey-based measures, including today’s output data for the production and construction sectors, we estimate that UK GDP growth in the third quarter …

Too close to the state to fail

The China Momentum Indicator 2.0, Fathom’s measure of economic activity in China, rose to 7.3% in August. The pace of growth has almost tripled in the last two …

Catalonia: a constitutional Classico

On 1 October 2017, the state of Catalonia held an independence referendum against the will of the Spanish state. 90% of those who voted were in favour of …

Emerging market rally still has legs

The global economy has enjoyed a broad-based acceleration over the past year, aided by Chinese stimulus efforts and the end of severe recessions in Brazil and Russia. International …

Spike in US auto sales in September points to solid Q3 and Q4 GDP growth

Despite Hurricane Irma making landfall in September, US automakers reported a stronger-than-expected 15% increase in light vehicle sales last month; this more than offset August’s decline, when sales …

Brexit-related uncertainty weighs on economic sentiment in Q3

By distilling information from numerous consumer and business surveys into one measure, our UK Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) provides a monthly snapshot of underlying growth momentum. Since the beginning of this year, …

Japan’s Tankan offers Prime Minister Abe a lifeline

Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey, which asks over 10,000 firms for their view on business conditions, offers an alternative to the country’s often heavily revised GDP data…

The rise of American zombies

We have consistently argued that, by giving unprofitable firms a prolonged lifeline, ultra-loose monetary policy has contributed to weaker productivity growth in recent years. New research from the …

FEAOS and equity market update

We have updated the Fathom Equity Analyst Optimism Score (FEAOS) methodology and now base the results on national headline equity indices rather than on the Datastream equity indices. …

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