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Research Notes

Russia rate cut: more to come

Today’s rate cut by the Central Bank of Russia is a harbinger of further easing, and we expect the rouble to lag other emerging market (EM) currencies. The …

Euro area PMI data confirm strong momentum, but EURUSD will fall in the medium term

The euro area Composite PMI rose to 56.7 in March from 56.0 in the previous month, confirming our forecast of strong GDP growth in the first quarter. This …

Introducing Fathom’s UK STAM: Activity slows into the New Year

With activity surprising on the upside after the Brexit vote, it could be said that the UK economic outlook is unusually uncertain at present. This Newsletter introduces our …

China needs fiscal reform to rebalance

China has very high levels of inequality, in comparison with its own past and with its peers. Reducing income inequality would help to boost private consumption and contribute …

Africa: on the frontier

Managed commodity currencies will face dual headwinds from a sustained period of low oil prices and a rising US dollar. But those countries that have floating exchange rates …

UK inflation will continue to accelerate through market expectations

UK CPI inflation reached 2.3% in February, its highest rate since September 2013, exceeding market expectations as we advised last week. Core CPI inflation also increased from 1.6% …

Ignore draft budget, Trump tax cuts still coming

Although yesterday’s draft US budget included some large cuts in federal spending and hardly any new infrastructure investment, we still expect US economic growth to exceed 3% this …

A split vote but no UK rate hike in sight

The UK’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold, and unanimously to keep the stock of asset purchases unchanged at its March meeting. Kristin Forbes, …

Don’t fight the Fed

We expect yesterday’s rally in US Treasuries and weakness in the US dollar to be short-lived. Investors, it seems, were expecting the Fed to signal a faster pace …

BoJ sits back and relaxes

Benefiting from global tailwinds and US monetary policy divergence, the Bank of Japan left policy unchanged when it concluded its two-day rate-setting meeting. But as we have argued …

Inactive Norges Bank and higher oil prices will lead to strengthening of the krone

In line with our expectations, the Norges Bank once again left rates at 0.5% following its March meeting. We do not expect a rate cut in the next …

Dutch election outcome represents a step away from our risk scenario. En marche!

Confirming the trend in polls, incumbent Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s Liberals won 33 seats in yesterday’s elections, 13 seats more than the populist candidate Geert Wilders Party …

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