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Research Notes

ECB buys itself more time

The April ECB meeting proved another non-event with the governing council holding fire until after the second round of the French presidential election on 7 May. Leaving policy …

US GDP: where is all the growth?

We expect this Friday’s advance estimate of US GDP to show that the economy expanded at an annualised pace of just 0.2% in Q1. By contrast, business and …

A triumph for M. Macron and the pollsters in round one

French surveyors of public opinion have done a good job so far, with last night’s results very close to the final set of polls. It is Emmanuel Macron …

Emerging markets: get in or get out?

Emerging market assets have proved more resilient to the early stages of Federal Reserve policy normalisation than many had anticipated. But as we identified last year, the biggest …

Alors on vote

With the first round of the French presidential election becoming a four-horse race, markets are right to worry about a Marine Le Pen — Jean-Luc Mélenchon runoff on …

Despite rate cuts, Brazilian assets remain vulnerable

Brazil’s inflation rate continued to fall in April, down from 4.7% in March to 4.4% in mid-April, almost exactly in line with the central bank’s 3% to 6% …

Turkey’s voting: time to buy?

Turkey will hold a referendum this Sunday on whether to amend its constitution and adopt an Executive Presidency. Polls suggest that the electorate will vote in favour of …

Brexit weighs on UK economy

We estimate that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 was just 0.4%, a marked slowdown from the 0.7% achieved in the final quarter of 2016. Both …

US – China summit: let the games begin!

Trade is likely to top the agenda of Donald Trump’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping today. We expect few tangible results from today’s meeting, but it …

Botched US healthcare reform – how worried should we be?

Mr Trump’s failure to reform US healthcare has raised doubts about his ability to pass pro-business legislation, including tax cuts and infrastructure investment. But we think investors have …

Holding the Bank of Japan captive

It is premature to conclude that the Bank of Japan will increase its ten-year government bond yield target in line with rising US Treasury yields. Fiscal dominance, meaning …

Introducing Fathom’s UK STAM: Activity slows into the New Year

With activity surprising on the upside after the Brexit vote, it could be said that the UK economic outlook is unusually uncertain at present. This Newsletter introduces our …

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