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Emerging markets: get in or get out?

  • Emerging market assets have proved more resilient to the early stages of Federal Reserve policy normalisation than many had anticipated.
  • But as we identified last year, the biggest near-term threat to emerging market economies is greater protectionism and a reversal of globalisation.
  • Discrete external policy choices, particularly around trade, remain the biggest risk. But these have not crystallised yet and international trade growth is accelerating.
  • Amid a synchronised global upswing, we believe the recent run in emerging market assets still has legs, and we have upgraded our central EM equity position to positive…

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