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Is the German economy overheating?

Fathom retains a pessimistic view of the euro area’s long-term prospects, unless progress is eventually made towards transforming the currency bloc into a fully-fledged fiscal union. We do, however, see tentative signs of progress in this regard, with President Macron of France proposing a series of reforms to address some of the euro area’s structural flaws. In any case, we acknowledge that the near-term outlook is far brighter with the union’s strong cyclical upswing expected to continue this year. In few places are the short-term signs more encouraging than in Germany. Its economy is expected to have grown by 2.5% in 2017, its strongest year since the crisis of 2011–2012. And we believe that…

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