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Odds of a UK recession are now greater than even

Defying widespread expectation of a recession, the UK economy weathered the Brexit storm better than the majority of forecasters, ourselves included, anticipated. That was thanks, in large part, to the strength of consumer spending. But that tide has since turned: the brief period of real wage growth is over; household finances are stretched; and June’s inconclusive general election has reignited concerns about the nation’s economic prospects. With the key driver of UK GDP growth, the consumer, under assault, we believe that there is now a greater-than-evens chance of a technical recession in the UK over the next year.

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