The UK is no longer influencing the future of the European project. Recall the words of Sir Humphrey in “Yes, Minister”:
“We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn’t work. Now that we’re inside we can make a complete pig’s breakfast of the whole thing…”
We’re now on the outside again, so that pig’s breakfast has a chance of becoming something altogether more appetising. The emergence of Macron in France means there is now a realistic prospect of the euro area addressing its internal contradictions and becoming a counterweight to the USA.
But it will not be easy. The US economy is booming, spurred by tax cuts and animal spirits. The current administration is determined to keep that momentum going, and it has support in both Houses to do so – but this is late-cycle stuff and asset-price volatility is back.
Who will win?
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