Chile’s GDP per capita (USD nominal) has grown by 5.8% per year on average since the country transitioned to a democracy in 1990. In 2024, it stood at $16,700, ahead of the other four largest economies in Latin America (Mexico, Argentina, Brazil and Colombia). A more concerning trend is that Chile also has the worst fertility rate of the same five countries: at 1.167 in 2023, it is well below the threshold of 2.1 births per woman required to maintain a stable population. In the past it was not until a country had achieved high-income status that its birth rate declined by a similar magnitude, yet Chile’s GDP per capita remains a long way off this, at less than one fifth of the US’s GDP per capita. Declining birth rates have not been the major issue in the country’s run-off presidential election this month, when Jeannette Jara, a Communist party member, faces off against José Antonio Kast of the far-right Republican party, but Mr Kast, who is favourite to win, has proposed a tax exemption and $2,000 handouts for new mothers. Meanwhile, the current leftist government has pledged expanded financial assistance for childcare services and IVF. Reversing falling fertility rates is no easy task. But if Chile wishes to continue to improve its prosperity, then whatever the result on 14 December, policymakers must attempt to stabilise this trend and boost birth rates, or the country risks the kind of future economic and social development impairment associated with stagnating or shrinking populations.