The current quarter will probably see global GDP surpass its pre-crisis level, and the pre-crisis trend will probably be recovered by the end of the year. However, that good news story masks huge differences that remain in place across countries. Output in most EU economies was still substantially below its pre-crisis level in 2021 Q1, by between 5% and 10% — numbers that continue to exceed the impact of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008/09, at that time the biggest global recession in at least 80 years. But other countries were already almost back, and in some cases booming – not just China, but also the US and South Korea. The remainder of this year is likely to see more convergence across advanced economies, as the vaccines take effect in the EU. But the worst might be still to come in some emerging economies, especially India, where a new variant of the virus is flaring up. It’s over globally, probably — but not for every country.

 

This chart is taken from Fathom’s Recovery Watch newsletter. Click here to subscribe to Recovery Watch.