The price of Brent crude for delivery in one year’s time moved above $82 per barrel in early May. That was the highest price recorded since the US and Israel began a series of strikes against Iran on 28 February. Investors are increasingly pricing in a prolonged period of disruption to the supply of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. A premium of some $20-$25 over the pre-conflict price could be consistent with a number of scenarios, including a reduced flow of traffic through the narrow waterway for a sustained period, or a tax levied by Iran on shipping in return for safe passage, or some combination of the two. What it is not consistent with, in our view, is an indefinite, near-total cessation of marine traffic through the Gulf. As we set out in our Global Outlook, Spring 2026, published in early March, that kind of environment would see the price of a barrel of crude move to around $170 triggering a global recession. We are now in the process of updating our quarterly outlook. Our revised forecast is likely to see higher oil prices in expectation, weaker growth and higher inflation.