According to US Energy Information Administration data, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil supply dropped to its lowest recorded level in April 2026, as the double-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevented the oil from being shipped to market. To date, the shortfall in Gulf oil supply, of which Saudi Arabia accounts for over a third, has been countered by the International Energy Agency’s release of reserves and the relaxation of sanctions on Iranian oil stranded at sea. However, these buffers are nearly exhausted, indicating that oil shortages are approaching. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens swiftly, normal traffic will take time to resume, although Saudi Arabia’s abundant spare capacity would allow it to swiftly resume shipments. At the time of writing, a deal including a 60-day ceasefire and steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has temporarily stalled, with Iran’s Foreign Ministry stating that a ceasefire in Lebanon remains a key condition for any deal aimed at ending the war. In Fathom’s Global Outlook Summer 2026, we place a 35% probability on an ‘oil shock’ scenario, in which a long-term continuation of the Strait’s closure pushes oil prices towards $170 per barrel, and a 50% probability on a ‘slow and messy’ scenario, in which the Strait of Hormuz partially reopens soon but with reduced traffic compared to pre-conflict levels. In this second scenario, it would take 12 months for the Strait to be de-mined and for full production to return to pre-war levels.