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Macroeconomic forecasting

Global Economic Strategic Allocation Model (GESAM)Macroeconomic forecasting
is our macroeconomic forecasting model used to inform Global Economic and Markets Outlook (GEMO), our quarterly macroeconomic forecast, available to clients. Our forecasting follows a single chain of logic to combine various different macroeconomic scenarios for the global economy with an optimal asset allocation.

Our proprietary model, GESAM, places the interaction between the real economy and financial markets at the forefront. It differs from other industry models in that its key international linkages are flows of capital across countries, which are intermediated by the banking sector. It covers all the major asset classes, with coverage across more than 170 countries – accounting for more than 98% of global GDP, 24 core economies are covered in detail.

We use this model to help construct various scenarios for the global economy, which we then weight together to form our forecast distributions for GDP, inflation, interest rates and various asset prices in the major economies.

GEMO is as part of a package available to clients including face-to-face meetings. Clients can also subscribe to regular newsletters on the latest economic developments, global and regional research notes, access to a suite of analytical applications and use the Fathom Chartbook. For details about our client packages, Submit Enquiry.

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