The Autumn Budget, due to be delivered in late November, is likely to be one of the most closely watched Budgets for some time. It will be critical to the medium-term fiscal and monetary outlook in the UK. The previous Budget left the Chancellor with only a limited £10 billion of fiscal headroom, and the rise in long-term gilt yields in the past few months has, in our estimate, already wiped out £3–6 billion of that headroom. Combined with this,