Insights
US Election: Biden the base case, but Trump can’t be ruled out
With less than a month to go until US voters head to the polls, our central projection is a Democrat sweep: Joe Biden wins the presidential election, with the Democrats keeping the House and taking the Senate, too. Under this scenario, we expect increased fiscal stimulus, lifting GDP growth (nominal and real) versus the counterfactual, despite an anticipated increase in taxes … [Please click below to read the full note.]
China’s economic recovery continues in Q3
21 October 2020
Record rates of household saving point to upside risks through next year
14 October 2020
How much debt is too much?
Sino-US tensions in a post-COVID world
GEMO 2020 Q4: On the up
What next for the labour market?
A little less conversation, a little more action, please
Beyond COVID-19
Can Trump delay the election?
Spread of COVID-19 is slowing for reasons other than lockdown
China’s juggling act between hot property and a cold economy
How do we get from V to L?
GEMO 2020 Q2: Climbing out the other side
What is monetary financing, are we doing it, and if so does it matter?
China’s labour market statistics fail the sniff test, but are not alone
Potential short- and long-run economic consequences of COVID-19
A chance for China to tell it how it is
2020 Q1: biggest global recession since the 1930s
Assessing the ECB’s monetary toolkit
Why have the aftermaths of recent banking crises been so painful?
Introducing Fathom’s Centrality Tracker: a measure of global linkages
2020 vision: turning hindsight into insights
Netflix and chill: economists find new meaning
FROG: the asset allocation prince
UK electoral arithmetic: testing the loyalty of conflicted voters
Introducing Fathom’s 2019 Q4 forecast: through the looking glass and back to reality
Fathom’s capital flows database — greatest hits
Bullish investors taking a new look at Greek debt
India: positive demographics, but will they be harnessed?
Global trade: pause or rewind?
The Hong Kong problem
Greece: more debt and fewer people