• GEMO 2021 Q4: Global recovery complete — what next?

    13 September 2021

    The global recession is over and the pre-pandemic trend level of GDP will probably be reached in Q3. How long the cyclical momentum lasts depends on how rapidly firms and households spend the excess savings built up during the recession, and on how long the rise in inflation lasts. We have changed the weights attached to our three scenarios, with 50% now on the ‘transitory inflation’ scenario, 40% on a scenario that sees inflation higher through the forecast period, and...

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