Insights
GEMO 2021 Q3: Inflation – deal with it, or roll with it?
Last year’s collapse in global economic activity differed in pace and scale from any previous recession. Equally the recovery, now well established in most economies, will be unlike anything we have seen before. Almost every post-war major economy recession has been triggered either by a tightening of monetary policy in response to a period of overheating, or by the bursting of a financial market bubble. The UK recessions of the early 80s and the early 90s fall into the first...
Transitory forces push up US inflation
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The fall and rise of the output gap
China’s rare opportunity to rebalance
Monthly update, April 2021
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Dimensions of power: US and China
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Biden presidency a potential game changer, but net zero path requires bipartisan support
This year give your investments a macro makeover with Fathom’s macro portfolios
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Divided US government means less fiscal support
Climate economics and the US election
US Election: Biden the base case, but Trump can’t be ruled out
How much debt is too much?
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A little less conversation, a little more action, please
Can Trump delay the election?
China’s juggling act between hot property and a cold economy
How do we get from V to L?
China’s labour market statistics fail the sniff test, but are not alone
Down but not out: signals from Fathom’s asset allocation toolbox
A tale of two crises: rising unemployment key to the Irish outlook
ECB steps in as contagion fears resurface
COVID-19 spread sparks Italian debt sustainability fears
UK economic sentiment strengthened further last month
Raise a glass to the new chancellor
Global recession now odds on
Is France heading towards recession?
US sentiment bounces back, but growth yet to follow
China’s underutilised society
ECB’s strategy review unlikely to solve its inflation woes
Introducing Fathom’s Centrality Tracker: a measure of global linkages
Fathom’s UK ESI points to a rapid turnaround in sentiment
UK fiscal expansion to lift growth in coming quarters
Economic sentiment in Japan stops its slide
2020 vision: turning hindsight into insights
The building blocks of China
The euro area: reverting to trend
US December sentiment – a dead cat bounce?
UK election sees currency risk fall, despite continued uncertainty
2019 in review: investors embrace European political changes
Introducing Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator 3.0
UK economic sentiment weakest for more than ten years
Investors content to hold European debt as pressure for easing grows
US economy to avoid recession, but weak rebound ahead
UK inflation to fall below zero in the event of a Conservative majority
FROG: the asset allocation prince
Surveys of economic sentiment suggest UK still on cusp of recession
China: down and fighting back
Spanish ESI softens, but growth likely to remain strong
Trade deal offers hope amid economic slowdown
Fathom’s capital flows database — greatest hits
Bullish investors taking a new look at Greek debt
Pre-tax spending surge not enough to lift Japanese spirits in Q3
India: positive demographics, but will they be harnessed?
European fiscal easing not enough to offset weaker growth
European fiscal easing not enough to offset weaker growth
US sentiment – back to reality
Greece: more debt and fewer people
Happy Anniversary?
Fathom’s Top 10 for 2019 Q3
US sentiment to suffer due to weakness abroad and slowdown at home
Impeachment proceedings do not change US economic outlook
Supreme Court rules
UK economic sentiment lowest since the recession
Trading places: France emerges from Germany’s shadow
Investors confident of Italy staying, less so of them paying
Investors complacent about US–China deal?
Rebalancing remains a distant prospect for China
The impact of a Labour government
Liquidity FLiq-ed on by July Fed cut
Fathom’s ESI reflects pessimism in German manufacturing sector
Tariff-neutralising fall in China’s currency fails to stem economic slowdown
Don’t FVI for me Argentina
US sentiment rebounds amid longer term slowdown
UK ESI consistent with broadly flat economic output in July
A new dimension in British politics
China will refrain from going nuclear on currency weaponisation
Inflation projections plagued by Brexit uncertainty
FLI points to a turn in the manufacturing cycle
Consumption tax up, sentiment down
Investors cheer prospect of ECB easing
Nowcast provides little support for ECB policy easing
US economic sentiment weakened in June amid escalating trade tensions
Fathom’s ESIs highlight manufacturing weakness
Debt sustainability issues limit room for manoeuvre in some euro area economies
Fathom’s UK ESI reaches a six-year low
Fathom’s CMI 2.0 slows to 4.8% in May
Will the Italian bond rally continue?
Will central banks adopt higher inflation targets?
Euro area inflation forecasts show risk of stagnation
Central bankers – tailoring policy to rules or markets?
New Prime Minister of Greece plans reforms, but will they succeed?
Breaking up credit: it’s not you, it’s me…
Investors reassess odds of Italian domino effect
Euro area ESI ticks up as Draghi plans last hurrah
US sentiment indicator highlights investors’ misguided rate expectations
Fathom’s UK ESI highlights risk of economic stagnation
China: heading for the slow lane
Investors remain overly wary of Greek default risk
China’s ticking NPL time bomb
CEI drops sharply amid escalating trade tensions
Charting the FLI path of global growth
Downward trend in Italian sentiment continues
European elections – a first step towards our ‘Golden Scenario’?
US economic sentiment and GDP growth to decline this year
Higher energy prices to boost UK inflation
Are we in for a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis?
UK ESI suggests underlying economic growth is close to 0.2%
Benign investor reaction reflects limited political risk in Spain
Another false start for Japan as economic sentiment hits multi-year low
Fathom’s Top 10 for 2019 Q1
China: caught between a rock and a hard place
CEI reflects optimism over US/China trade deal
US policy stance to return to neutral this year
Euro area expected to grow at a moderate pace in the first quarter
Upside US GDP surprise in store amid sentiment perk
What to expect from long-term expected returns — Fathom edition
Another strong year for the Irish economy
Fathom’s CMI holds steady as growth is prioritised over reform
UK inflation bucks the European trend
Rates too low according to Taylor rule
Investors see low risk of break-up as European elections near
Does China threaten US hegemony?
UK ESI continues to fall
Stalling market liquidity at odds with sustainable market rally
On gaming, Brexit, and the importance of looking around corners
Euro area sentiment ticked up in February
Central banks blink as outlook dims
US economic sentiment failed to rebound in February following shutdown
Fathom’s SFI highlights risks in Turkey and Argentina
Smart Beta 2.0 — rise of the machines
Euro break-up fears receding as currency’s popularity rises
Trade war on pause, but new era of tension here to stay
UK economic optimism close to six-year low
Euro area sentiment: mind the gap
Fathom’s Top 10 for 2018 Q4
Fathom’s CMI hovers around 6%
US recession still some way off despite weaker economic sentiment
China using capital flows to leapfrog up the global value chain
Falling inflation to help boost domestic demand
The Ionian divide ― lessons from Fathom’s indicators
China’s data mask hidden underemployment problem
Credit market success breeds complacency
Euro area nowcast suggests slowdown continued in Q4
UK ESI falls to lowest level since the EU referendum
Market turmoil hits US economic sentiment but recession still some way off
Fed pause raises the prospect of ‘one last party’ in global asset markets
Japanese sentiment clouded by global uncertainty
China is slowing, but it is not a consequence of rebalancing
UK inflation — still standing at the Brexit crossroads
A symbolic moment as UK house price inflation falls to 0.5%
Fathom’s 2018 scorecard
Italy’s fiscal resolution aims to soothe markets
New year, new EU
Fathom global outlook: feel the market
Focus on the ESI, not the Fed, for your holiday cheer
‘Old-model’ tactics halt China’s economic growth slowdown – for now
Global economy still has not learned to FLI
CEI reflects see-sawing trade tensions
Do they know it’s value time at all?
Time to lay off the monetary meds
ECB to end QE despite weak inflation
Italy – not all roads lead to default
Fathom’s UK ESI points to weaker economic activity in Q4
Time to lay off the monetary meds
When markets are wrong – lessons from Fathom’s SFI
Introducing Fathom’s 2018 Q4 forecast: Time to party like it’s 1989?
US business confidence slipped ahead of midterm elections
China’s ‘grey rhino’ threat
Made in China, exposed by RiCArdo
A flick about FLiq
Lessons from Fathom’s inflation models
Has euro area contagion risk returned?
US midterm elections not a game changer for the economy
Policy prescriptions for the Irish economy
Asset allocation: taking stock and dodging smoking barrels
Euro area economy likely to have grown by 0.4%
US Q3 GDP preview: another four handle amid buoyant sentiment?
A global recession is coming: here’s why
China’s hokey-cokey approach to reform
Japan: sentiment rebounds slightly in Q3
UK inflation set to fall after August blip
Euro area: set to catch a cold?
Italy: loosening the purse strings
US-listed firms with China exposure underperform their peers
EMs – fine now, cry later
Budget uncertainty weighing on Italian sentiment
Timeout for US small caps?
Time to batten down the hatches?
Business and consumer surveys support our bullish US GDP growth call
Rising above the labyrinth of financial noise with the FLI
China: old model still doing the heavy lifting
Rising above the labyrinth of financial noise with the FLI
Italy – markets remain on edge but not routing yet
Introducing our Q3 forecast: Fathom’s 2020 vision
UK economic sentiment stable despite rising uncertainty
Sovereign crisis risks in emerging markets
The ‘is’ and the ‘ought’ of net trade
US firms and consumers a little less optimistic, but growth outlook positive
Why oil might approach $20 per barrel
Italy back in the spotlight as EA sentiment remains elevated
Made in China; taxed in the USA
The outlook for G4 inflation
Italy to buck the trend as ECB plans to tighten policy
Greece – another can kicked down the road
China prioritises short-term growth
Unconvincingly ‘hawkish’ UK Inflation Report
Measurement issues cannot explain the productivity slowdown
What to make of US benchmark GDP revisions
UK economic sentiment slipped back a little in June
The outlook for ECB policy
ECB remains on course; economic outlook unchanged
Euro area ‘nowcast’ model points to rebound in GDP growth
Japan’s ESI slips for a second consecutive quarter
Liquidity trends at the FLIQ of a finger
Measuring trade tensions with our China Exposure Index
Trade wars — it’s all in the game
The UK and euro area – will inflation continue to converge?
What goes down must come up
Fathom’s UK ESI bucks the recent downward trend
New insights into EU migration
Trade and the theory of second best
China’s latest power grab — all hot air?
China’s economy continues to slow
Italy – the relative calm after the storm
UK growth revisions — some plain facts
Introducing Fathom’s Q2 forecast: Hurry up please, it’s time!
Fathom’s UK ESI loses further steam
Political uncertainty drags down EA economic sentiment
Global equities are 40% overvalued — who is vulnerable to a correction?
US economic sentiment drops in April amid trade concerns
Reconciling UK inflation forecasts
France’s digital economy needs to hit restart
Bank overly sanguine on UK growth outlook
Greece – a good time to say goodbye?
Is the euro forever and always?
Economic activity in China continues to slacken
Sweet leverage: dieting now versus toothache later
UK’s economic slowdown gathers pace
Are markets mispricing sovereign credit risk in India and Russia?
What is the Bank of England credit conditions survey telling us?
Fathom’s UK ESI confirms that the damage is already done
Japanese economic sentiment still outstripping GDP growth, but has it peaked?
QE: the theory and the evidence
US economic sentiment close to record high in March despite trade fears
Why is Fathom so pessimistic on UK growth?
Output data confirm weakening UK growth outlook
May – not a FIT-ting time to hike?
Fathom’s EA Economic Sentiment Indicators down, but not out
China’s rebalancing is still just a dream
The European dominos: standing tall for now
FANG-ache? The macro dentist will see you now
Probability of house price correction in China rising fast
Is the German economy overheating?
Trade war? What trade war?
Ireland: the MINI economy
What goes up must come down
BoE’s MPC doubles down, but a rate hike in May is not nailed on
Is it the euro area’s time to shine?
US economic sentiment soars after tax reform and strong jobs growth
Equity outlook: valuations through a macro lens
US economic sentiment soars after tax reform and strong jobs growth
A global trade war remains an outside risk, despite US tariffs
The dawning of a new error?
Fathom’s UK ESI limps into the New Year
US economic outlook remains positive, despite mixed data
Europe’s ‘Super Sunday’
Tax cuts to drive US wages higher
Introducing Fathom’s latest quarterly forecast: what’s new?
UK inflation set to moderate in 2018
Is the German economy overheating?
‘Hawkish’ MPC too sanguine about the prospect of a sharp slowdown in growth?
FMPI confirms record policy stimulus behind Europe’s strong cyclical upturn
US GDP report highlights strong domestic economy
Banking and sovereign debt reforms essential to the euro area’s future
UK GDP better than anticipated, but Brexit weighs on the domestic economy
Japan’s ESI edges higher, but it is too soon to declare victory
Neither UK investment – nor export-orientated growth will save the day
Review of the year
Euro area: periphery spreads set to rise in 2018
Stronger growth and improved resilience
Spotting UK recessions
How technological change drives inequality
China residential property: keep starting, but stop finishing
The Phillips curve — rumours of its death are greatly exaggerated
Equity prices — beware of a correction
Globalisation’s downward pressure on prices set to ease
The Phillips curve — rumours of its death are greatly exaggerated
Merkel and Macron — Europe’s ‘golden scenario’?
Italy and the itcoin — beware the Ides of March
Spotting UK recessions
ECB: a deposit facility for the many, not just the few?
November strategy outlook
The UK MPC puts its faith in the Phillips curve
Global outlook 2017 Q4: the fundamental things apply
Europe’s dizzying debt dynamics
Sovereign fragility: did you miss me?
The rise of American zombies
What are the odds that Brexit and recession cost Mrs May her job?
Falling star?
How Trump’s revised tax plan might unfold
Too close to the state to fail
Catalonia: a constitutional Classico
Emerging market rally still has legs
The UK consumer squeeze begins to bite
Global outlook: it’s a mad, mad, mad, MAD world
Falling star?
The rise of American zombies
Central bankers ignore the elephant in the room
Solid foundations for Spain’s recovery
Is Greece finally out of the woods?
Japan’s GDP – nothing more than a sugar high
Labour market reforms top of the agenda for Mr Macron
UK MPC tries to have its cake and eat it
Fixed income and currency Q3 outlook
ECB – why this time will be different
Our expanded China Momentum Indicator shows growth rebounding – for now
India: despite medium-term uncertainty, a bright near-term outlook
Odds of a UK recession are now greater than even
Equity investors are not worried about a US/China trade war
Globalisation: it’s not over yet
Trump’s troubles: can the US economy still reach escape velocity?
Trump’s troubles: can the US economy still reach escape velocity?
US auto debt: a look under the bonnet
Don’t forget about Italy
It’s the Phillips curve, stupid
China is due a banking crisis
UK Election: exciting politics; dull economics – probably
Emerging market debt: a problem?
Germany’s residential property market – bubble or investment opportunity?
Monetary policy: when debt can do no more
How a quicker pace of tightening by the Fed would affect the US economy
Fathom’s Economic Sentiment Indicators explained
Dissecting France’s productivity performance
Euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator round-up
Have we passed peak protectionism? And if so, what’s next?
US GDP: where is all the growth?
Emerging markets: get in or get out?
Fathom’s Economic Sentiment Indicators explained
US – China summit: let the games begin!
Botched US healthcare reform – how worried should we be?
China needs fiscal reform to rebalance
Productivity puzzle: the drugs don’t work
Trump Lite or Donald Dark?
Helicopter money — a primer
The UK’s housing bubble: ready to pop?
The fantasy and the reality of China’s economic rebalancing
UK GDP is the best predictor of UK GDP, literally
