Insights
Global Outlook, Summer 2022: Update
Fathom has revised its US interest rate forecasts since we published our Global Outlook, Summer 2022 earlier this month, to push up the probability-weighted path for the US federal funds rate in the near term… [Please click below to read the full note.]
China tech: a short-term revival or a longer-term theme?
Market takeaways on inflation and hawkishness
China doubles down double quick
Fathom book club: Kearns, Lee and Pasquale
Mounting debt weighs on Chinese government finances
Mounting pressure on Chinese government finances
Global Outlook, Summer 2022: Between a rock and a hard place
When will China run out of workers?
Round-up: Inflation triggers rising rates
Soaring food prices raise the risk of political instability
Is Xi’s authority in trouble?
The Middle Kingdom is in the doldrums
Fathom book club: Copeland, Kahneman and Rozelle
Global Outlook, Spring 2022: Update
China’s economic woes mount
Monthly round-up: Handling the green transition
Back to the 1970s
Russian bears scratching each other’s backs
US military expenditure — Biden should focus on R&D
Monthly round-up: China in a global context
China is not about to drive up global inflation
Fathom’s Top 10 most read for 2022 Q1
Standoff over gas payments risks a continental recession
Global Outlook, Spring 2022: Fake it till you make it
Behind-the-curve Fed signals more rate hikes
China housing set for further easing
Monthly round-up: Inflation, inflation, inflation
Inflation drivers and equity markets
Initial thoughts on today’s events in Ukraine
The perils of tighter Fed policy
The Ukrainian crisis and European inflation
China on the road to Japan
Is Brexit fuelling UK inflation?
Macro FROGcasting and portfolio construction
Monthly round-up: Can science alone save us from climate change?
Understanding Turkey’s currency crisis
Sri Lanka’s woes – a sign of the times?
Reflections from COP26 — winners and losers
Hits and misses in 2021
Risks of stagflation receding in China
Monthly round-up: From UK corporate debt to Chinese housing glut
Currency crisis in Turkey, preventable or intentional?
Are we heading for a systemic banking crisis?
China’s house of cards
China’s intellectual property acquisition erodes US edge
Hidden inflation in the services sector
GEMO 2022 Q1: Credibility stretched
Round-up: from climate finance to falling growth
Financial vulnerability in Africa
Greta says it’s all just blah blah blah ─ why I disagree
Are inflation expectations slipping their anchor?
Run to the hills? Not yet
Round-up: A climate COPout?
How to spot a cop-out at COP26
Allocating the world’s carbon budget
Valuing land before and after COVID
Decarbonising the UK’s electricity mix – what will it take?
Round-up: from EMs to Evergrande
Is Made in China really made in China?
COP26 unlikely to achieve its targets
GEMO 2021 Q4: Global recovery complete — what next?
The bumpy road to climate transition
COVID still poses risks to demand and supply
Round-up: from global interest rates to public sector bankruptcies
Is China’s vision of high-tech specialism stalling?
China’s climate challenge ahead
New IPCC report ups the climate stakes
Biden should stick to China tariff regime
Round-up: China in a global context
Has low-for-long run its course?
Using fundamental and sentiment news to shape equity allocation
Recovery Watch, 14 July 2021
Has China passed the Lewis turning point?
Monthly update, June 2021
Recovery Watch, 9 June 2021
GEMO 2021 Q3: Inflation – deal with it, or roll with it?
A tale of two cryptos
Signs of optimism for the EU
If I were a monetarist…
Recovery Watch, 5 May 2021
The fall and rise of the output gap
The resource curse through the lens of the DRC
China’s rare opportunity to rebalance
Monthly update, April 2021
TCFD: a climate game-changer
Global recovery – who is winning?
Inflation: too much talk, little action
Recovery Watch, 7 April 2021
A Ricardian view of Brexit
Monthly update, March 2021
GEMO 2021 Q2: Investors return to macro and inflation outlook
Dimensions of power: US and China
Sequencing Bitcoin’s macro DNA
Recovery Watch, 3 March 2021
Global macro in a pandemic: messages from Fathom’s Centrality Tracker
China’s housing bares all
QE no panacea for EMs in another Taper Tantrum
Monthly update, February 2021
EU climate policy: risks and opportunities
Biden presidency a potential game changer, but net zero path requires bipartisan support
Recovery Watch, 3 February 2021
This year give your investments a macro makeover with Fathom’s macro portfolios
Can Joe Biden make America great again?
Recovery Watch, 13 January 2021
Recovery Watch, 6 January 2021
China’s corporate bond defaults: are they here to stay?
Recovery Watch, 16 December 2020
Recovery Watch, 9 December 2020
Recovery Watch, 2 December 2020
GEMO 2021 Q1: Hope at last
Chancellor announces highest public investment since the GFC
Recovery Watch, 25 November 2020
Recovery Watch, 18 November 2020
Recovery Watch, 11 November 2020
Divided US government means less fiscal support
Climate economics and the US election
Recovery Watch, 4 November 2020
Recovery Watch, 28 October 2020
Recovery Watch, 21 October 2020
Recovery Watch, 14 October 2020
Recovery Watch, 7 October 2020
US Election: Biden the base case, but Trump can’t be ruled out
Recovery Watch, 30 September 2020
How much debt is too much?
Recovery Watch, 23 September 2020
Sino-US tensions in a post-COVID world
Recovery Watch, 16 September 2020
GEMO 2020 Q4: On the up
Recovery Watch, 9 September 2020
Recovery Watch, 2 September 2020
Recovery Watch, 26 August 2020
Recovery Watch, 19 August 2020
What next for the labour market?
Recovery Watch, 14 August 2020
A little less conversation, a little more action, please
Beyond COVID-19
Recovery Watch, 5 August 2020
Recovery Watch, 31 July 2020
Can Trump delay the election?
Recovery Watch, 22 July 2020
Recovery Watch, 17 July 2020
Recovery Watch, 8 July 2020
Spread of COVID-19 is slowing for reasons other than lockdown
China’s juggling act between hot property and a cold economy
Recovery Watch, 3 July 2020
Recovery Watch, 26 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 24 June 2020
How do we get from V to L?
Recovery Watch, 22 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 19 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 17 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 12 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 10 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 8 June 2020
GEMO 2020 Q2: Climbing out the other side
Recovery Watch, 5 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 3 June 2020
Recovery Watch, 29 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 27 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 26 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 22 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 20 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 18 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 15 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 13 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 11 May 2020
Recovery Watch, 6 May 2020
What is monetary financing, are we doing it, and if so does it matter?
Recession Watch, 1 May 2020
China’s labour market statistics fail the sniff test, but are not alone
Recession Watch, 29 April 2020
Recession Watch, 27 April 2020
Recession Watch, 24 April 2020
Recession Watch, 23 April 2020
Recession Watch, 21 April 2020
Recession Watch, 20 April 2020
Recession Watch, 16 April 2020
Recession Watch, 15 April 2020
Down but not out: signals from Fathom’s asset allocation toolbox
Recession Watch, 14 April 2020
Recession Watch, 9 April 2020
Potential short- and long-run economic consequences of COVID-19
A chance for China to tell it how it is
Recession Watch, 3 April 2020
Recession Watch, 31 March 2020
Recession Watch, 30 March 2020
Recession Watch, 27 March 2020
Recession Watch, 26 March 2020
A tale of two crises: rising unemployment key to the Irish outlook
ECB steps in as contagion fears resurface
2020 Q1: biggest global recession since the 1930s
COVID-19 spread sparks Italian debt sustainability fears
UK economic sentiment strengthened further last month
Raise a glass to the new chancellor
Global recession now odds on
Assessing the ECB’s monetary toolkit
Is France heading towards recession?
US sentiment bounces back, but growth yet to follow
China’s underutilised society
ECB’s strategy review unlikely to solve its inflation woes
Why have the aftermaths of recent banking crises been so painful?
Introducing Fathom’s Centrality Tracker: a measure of global linkages
Fathom’s UK ESI points to a rapid turnaround in sentiment
UK fiscal expansion to lift growth in coming quarters
2020 vision: turning hindsight into insights
The building blocks of China
The euro area: reverting to trend
US December sentiment – a dead cat bounce?
UK election sees currency risk fall, despite continued uncertainty
2019 in review: investors embrace European political changes
Netflix and chill: economists find new meaning
Introducing Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator 3.0
UK economic sentiment weakest for more than ten years
Investors content to hold European debt as pressure for easing grows
US economy to avoid recession, but weak rebound ahead
UK inflation to fall below zero in the event of a Conservative majority
FROG: the asset allocation prince
UK electoral arithmetic: testing the loyalty of conflicted voters
Introducing Fathom’s 2019 Q4 forecast: through the looking glass and back to reality
Surveys of economic sentiment suggest UK still on cusp of recession
China: down and fighting back
Spanish ESI softens, but growth likely to remain strong
Trade deal offers hope amid economic slowdown
Fathom’s capital flows database — greatest hits
Bullish investors taking a new look at Greek debt
India: positive demographics, but will they be harnessed?
European fiscal easing not enough to offset weaker growth
European fiscal easing not enough to offset weaker growth
Global trade: pause or rewind?
US sentiment – back to reality
The Hong Kong problem
Greece: more debt and fewer people
How low can yields go?
Happy Anniversary?
Fathom’s Top 10 for 2019 Q3
US sentiment to suffer due to weakness abroad and slowdown at home
Impeachment proceedings do not change US economic outlook
Supreme Court rules
UK economic sentiment lowest since the recession
Trading places: France emerges from Germany’s shadow
Investors confident of Italy staying, less so of them paying
Investors complacent about US–China deal?
Introducing Fathom’s 2019 Q3 forecast: A pause that refreshes?
Rebalancing remains a distant prospect for China
The impact of a Labour government
Liquidity FLiq-ed on by July Fed cut
Fathom’s ESI reflects pessimism in German manufacturing sector
Tariff-neutralising fall in China’s currency fails to stem economic slowdown
Don’t FVI for me Argentina
US sentiment rebounds amid longer term slowdown
UK ESI consistent with broadly flat economic output in July
A new dimension in British politics
China will refrain from going nuclear on currency weaponisation
Inflation projections plagued by Brexit uncertainty
FLI points to a turn in the manufacturing cycle
Consumption tax up, sentiment down
Investors cheer prospect of ECB easing
Nowcast provides little support for ECB policy easing
US economic sentiment weakened in June amid escalating trade tensions
Fathom’s ESIs highlight manufacturing weakness
Debt sustainability issues limit room for manoeuvre in some euro area economies
Fathom’s UK ESI reaches a six-year low
Fathom’s CMI 2.0 slows to 4.8% in May
Will the Italian bond rally continue?
Will central banks adopt higher inflation targets?
Euro area inflation forecasts show risk of stagnation
Central bankers – tailoring policy to rules or markets?
New Prime Minister of Greece plans reforms, but will they succeed?
Breaking up credit: it’s not you, it’s me…
Investors reassess odds of Italian domino effect
Euro area ESI ticks up as Draghi plans last hurrah
US sentiment indicator highlights investors’ misguided rate expectations
Fathom’s UK ESI highlights risk of economic stagnation
China: heading for the slow lane
Introducing Fathom’s 2019 Q2 forecast: President Trump’s bark is (probably) worse than his bite
Investors remain overly wary of Greek default risk
China’s ticking NPL time bomb
CEI drops sharply amid escalating trade tensions
Charting the FLI path of global growth
Downward trend in Italian sentiment continues
European elections – a first step towards our ‘Golden Scenario’?
US economic sentiment and GDP growth to decline this year
Higher energy prices to boost UK inflation
Are we in for a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis?
UK ESI suggests underlying economic growth is close to 0.2%
Benign investor reaction reflects limited political risk in Spain
Another false start for Japan as economic sentiment hits multi-year low
Fathom’s Top 10 for 2019 Q1
China: caught between a rock and a hard place
CEI reflects optimism over US/China trade deal
US policy stance to return to neutral this year
Euro area expected to grow at a moderate pace in the first quarter
Upside US GDP surprise in store amid sentiment perk
What to expect from long-term expected returns — Fathom edition
Another strong year for the Irish economy
Fathom’s CMI holds steady as growth is prioritised over reform
UK inflation bucks the European trend
Rates too low according to Taylor rule
Investors see low risk of break-up as European elections near
Does China threaten US hegemony?
UK ESI continues to fall
Stalling market liquidity at odds with sustainable market rally
On gaming, Brexit, and the importance of looking around corners
Euro area sentiment ticked up in February
Central banks blink as outlook dims
US economic sentiment failed to rebound in February following shutdown
Fathom’s SFI highlights risks in Turkey and Argentina
Smart Beta 2.0 — rise of the machines
Euro break-up fears receding as currency’s popularity rises
Introducing Fathom’s 2019 Q1 forecast: Stepping back from the edge?
Trade war on pause, but new era of tension here to stay
UK economic optimism close to six-year low
Euro area sentiment: mind the gap
Fathom’s Top 10 for 2018 Q4
Fathom’s CMI hovers around 6%
US recession still some way off despite weaker economic sentiment
China using capital flows to leapfrog up the global value chain
Falling inflation to help boost domestic demand
The Ionian divide ― lessons from Fathom’s indicators
China’s data mask hidden underemployment problem
Credit market success breeds complacency
Euro area nowcast suggests slowdown continued in Q4
UK ESI falls to lowest level since the EU referendum
Market turmoil hits US economic sentiment but recession still some way off
Fed pause raises the prospect of ‘one last party’ in global asset markets
Japanese sentiment clouded by global uncertainty
China is slowing, but it is not a consequence of rebalancing
UK inflation — still standing at the Brexit crossroads
A symbolic moment as UK house price inflation falls to 0.5%
Fathom’s 2018 scorecard
Italy’s fiscal resolution aims to soothe markets
New year, new EU
Fathom global outlook: feel the market
Focus on the ESI, not the Fed, for your holiday cheer
‘Old-model’ tactics halt China’s economic growth slowdown – for now
Global economy still has not learned to FLI
CEI reflects see-sawing trade tensions
Do they know it’s value time at all?
Time to lay off the monetary meds
ECB to end QE despite weak inflation
Italy – not all roads lead to default
Fathom’s UK ESI points to weaker economic activity in Q4
Time to lay off the monetary meds
When markets are wrong – lessons from Fathom’s SFI
Introducing Fathom’s 2018 Q4 forecast: Time to party like it’s 1989?
US business confidence slipped ahead of midterm elections
China’s ‘grey rhino’ threat
Made in China, exposed by RiCArdo
A flick about FLiq
Lessons from Fathom’s inflation models
Has euro area contagion risk returned?
US midterm elections not a game changer for the economy
Policy prescriptions for the Irish economy
Asset allocation: taking stock and dodging smoking barrels
Euro area economy likely to have grown by 0.4%
US Q3 GDP preview: another four handle amid buoyant sentiment?
A global recession is coming: here’s why
China’s hokey-cokey approach to reform
Japan: sentiment rebounds slightly in Q3
UK inflation set to fall after August blip
Euro area: set to catch a cold?
Italy: loosening the purse strings
US-listed firms with China exposure underperform their peers
EMs – fine now, cry later
Budget uncertainty weighing on Italian sentiment
Timeout for US small caps?
Time to batten down the hatches?
Business and consumer surveys support our bullish US GDP growth call
Rising above the labyrinth of financial noise with the FLI
China: old model still doing the heavy lifting
Rising above the labyrinth of financial noise with the FLI
Italy – markets remain on edge but not routing yet
Introducing our Q3 forecast: Fathom’s 2020 vision
UK economic sentiment stable despite rising uncertainty
Sovereign crisis risks in emerging markets
The ‘is’ and the ‘ought’ of net trade
US firms and consumers a little less optimistic, but growth outlook positive
Why oil might approach $20 per barrel
Italy back in the spotlight as EA sentiment remains elevated
Made in China; taxed in the USA
The outlook for G4 inflation
Italy to buck the trend as ECB plans to tighten policy
Greece – another can kicked down the road
China prioritises short-term growth
Unconvincingly ‘hawkish’ UK Inflation Report
Measurement issues cannot explain the productivity slowdown
What to make of US benchmark GDP revisions
UK economic sentiment slipped back a little in June
The outlook for ECB policy
ECB remains on course; economic outlook unchanged
Euro area ‘nowcast’ model points to rebound in GDP growth
Japan’s ESI slips for a second consecutive quarter
Liquidity trends at the FLIQ of a finger
Measuring trade tensions with our China Exposure Index
Trade wars — it’s all in the game
The UK and euro area – will inflation continue to converge?
What goes down must come up
Fathom’s UK ESI bucks the recent downward trend
New insights into EU migration
Trade and the theory of second best
China’s latest power grab — all hot air?
China’s economy continues to slow
Italy – the relative calm after the storm
UK growth revisions — some plain facts
Introducing Fathom’s Q2 forecast: Hurry up please, it’s time!
Fathom’s UK ESI loses further steam
Political uncertainty drags down EA economic sentiment
Global equities are 40% overvalued — who is vulnerable to a correction?
US economic sentiment drops in April amid trade concerns
Reconciling UK inflation forecasts
France’s digital economy needs to hit restart
Bank overly sanguine on UK growth outlook
Greece – a good time to say goodbye?
Is the euro forever and always?
Economic activity in China continues to slacken
Sweet leverage: dieting now versus toothache later
UK’s economic slowdown gathers pace
Are markets mispricing sovereign credit risk in India and Russia?
What is the Bank of England credit conditions survey telling us?
Fathom’s UK ESI confirms that the damage is already done
Japanese economic sentiment still outstripping GDP growth, but has it peaked?
QE: the theory and the evidence
US economic sentiment close to record high in March despite trade fears
Why is Fathom so pessimistic on UK growth?
Output data confirm weakening UK growth outlook
May – not a FIT-ting time to hike?
Fathom’s EA Economic Sentiment Indicators down, but not out
China’s rebalancing is still just a dream
The European dominos: standing tall for now
FANG-ache? The macro dentist will see you now
Probability of house price correction in China rising fast
Is the German economy overheating?
Trade war? What trade war?
Ireland: the MINI economy
What goes up must come down
BoE’s MPC doubles down, but a rate hike in May is not nailed on
Is it the euro area’s time to shine?
US economic sentiment soars after tax reform and strong jobs growth
Equity outlook: valuations through a macro lens
US economic sentiment soars after tax reform and strong jobs growth
A global trade war remains an outside risk, despite US tariffs
The dawning of a new error?
Fathom’s UK ESI limps into the New Year
US economic outlook remains positive, despite mixed data
Europe’s ‘Super Sunday’
Tax cuts to drive US wages higher
Introducing Fathom’s latest quarterly forecast: what’s new?
UK inflation set to moderate in 2018
Is the German economy overheating?
‘Hawkish’ MPC too sanguine about the prospect of a sharp slowdown in growth?
FMPI confirms record policy stimulus behind Europe’s strong cyclical upturn
US GDP report highlights strong domestic economy
Banking and sovereign debt reforms essential to the euro area’s future
UK GDP better than anticipated, but Brexit weighs on the domestic economy
Japan’s ESI edges higher, but it is too soon to declare victory
Neither UK investment – nor export-orientated growth will save the day
Review of the year
Euro area: periphery spreads set to rise in 2018
Stronger growth and improved resilience
Spotting UK recessions
How technological change drives inequality
China residential property: keep starting, but stop finishing
The Phillips curve — rumours of its death are greatly exaggerated
Equity prices — beware of a correction
Globalisation’s downward pressure on prices set to ease
The Phillips curve — rumours of its death are greatly exaggerated
Merkel and Macron — Europe’s ‘golden scenario’?
Italy and the itcoin — beware the Ides of March
Spotting UK recessions
ECB: a deposit facility for the many, not just the few?
November strategy outlook
The UK MPC puts its faith in the Phillips curve
Global outlook 2017 Q4: the fundamental things apply
Europe’s dizzying debt dynamics
Sovereign fragility: did you miss me?
The rise of American zombies
What are the odds that Brexit and recession cost Mrs May her job?
Falling star?
How Trump’s revised tax plan might unfold
Too close to the state to fail
Catalonia: a constitutional Classico
Emerging market rally still has legs
The UK consumer squeeze begins to bite
Global outlook: it’s a mad, mad, mad, MAD world
Falling star?
The rise of American zombies
Central bankers ignore the elephant in the room
Solid foundations for Spain’s recovery
Is Greece finally out of the woods?
Japan’s GDP – nothing more than a sugar high
Labour market reforms top of the agenda for Mr Macron
UK MPC tries to have its cake and eat it
Fixed income and currency Q3 outlook
ECB – why this time will be different
Our expanded China Momentum Indicator shows growth rebounding – for now
India: despite medium-term uncertainty, a bright near-term outlook
Odds of a UK recession are now greater than even
Equity investors are not worried about a US/China trade war
Globalisation: it’s not over yet
Trump’s troubles: can the US economy still reach escape velocity?
Trump’s troubles: can the US economy still reach escape velocity?
US auto debt: a look under the bonnet
Don’t forget about Italy
It’s the Phillips curve, stupid
China is due a banking crisis
UK Election: exciting politics; dull economics – probably
Emerging market debt: a problem?
Germany’s residential property market – bubble or investment opportunity?
Monetary policy: when debt can do no more
How a quicker pace of tightening by the Fed would affect the US economy
Fathom’s Economic Sentiment Indicators explained
Dissecting France’s productivity performance
Euro area Economic Sentiment Indicator round-up
Have we passed peak protectionism? And if so, what’s next?
US GDP: where is all the growth?
Emerging markets: get in or get out?
Fathom’s Economic Sentiment Indicators explained
US – China summit: let the games begin!
Botched US healthcare reform – how worried should we be?
China needs fiscal reform to rebalance
Productivity puzzle: the drugs don’t work
Trump Lite or Donald Dark?
Helicopter money — a primer
The UK’s housing bubble: ready to pop?
The fantasy and the reality of China’s economic rebalancing
UK GDP is the best predictor of UK GDP, literally