Insights

  • US Election: Biden the base case, but Trump can’t be ruled out

    5 October 2020

    With less than a month to go until US voters head to the polls, our central projection is a Democrat sweep: Joe Biden wins the presidential election, with the Democrats keeping the House and taking the Senate, too. Under this scenario, we expect increased fiscal stimulus, lifting GDP growth (nominal and real) versus the counterfactual, despite an anticipated increase in taxes … [Please click below to read the full note.]