Data, models, tools
An extensive range of proprietary economic data, models, and tools underpins all the work we do. These inform our Global Outlook, as well as forming the basis of consultancy work as we design and develop bespoke solutions for clients
Live charts for some of Fathom’s proprietary indicators can be found in the Chartbook on Datastream from Refinitiv. Our clients have access to the full range of our indicators in the website Chartbook, which can be found in the client zone.
Our global indicators
- Macroeconomic
- Macroeconomic
- Macroeconomic
- Financial market
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Macroeconomic
Fathom Macroeconomic Policy Indicator
This weights together both fiscal and monetary policy to give an overall indicator of the macroeconomic policy stance. A positive score implies that policy is loose, and a negative score that it is tight. The FMPI is calibrated so that a reading of plus one implies that the stance of macroeconomic policy is sufficiently loose to raise growth in demand by one percentage point relative to growth in supply.
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Geopolitical
Fathom Misery Index
For the consumer, both increasing living costs and rising unemployment are painful — the so-called ‘misery index’ adds together the unemployment rate and inflation rate. A high reading on the misery index signals low consumer confidence, and hence subdued consumer spending and economic growth.
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Geopolitical
Fathom Political Index
The Fathom Political Index measures a country’s level of political freedom. The index includes measures of voice and accountability, rule of law, corruption and institution type. These were chosen to include a broad measure of political set-up, and association with the international ‘rules-based order’.
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Financial market
Fathom Risk-Off Gauge
Fathom’s Risk-Off Gauge (FROG) provides a probabilistic assessment of market sentiment. It is estimated from the excess return of a global equity index over the return of the ten-year US government bond. It is based on statistical and econometric techniques aimed at identifying two distinct market regimes.
- Financial market
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Macroeconomic
Financial Vulnerability Indicator
Fathom’s Financial Vulnerability Indicator (FVI) is a comprehensive assessment of sovereign, currency and banking risk for 176 countries of the world. It combines innovative econometric techniques, cutting-edge academic literature and large amounts of data to assess the likelihood of crises occurring.
- Macroeconomic
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Macroeconomic
Sovereign Fragility Index
The SFI is a composite indicator of sovereign financial fragility based on fundamental macroeconomic drivers, independent of market judgement and fluctuations in the business cycle. Fundamental risk is driven by the level, as well as the composition of, government debt, private sector debt, domestic bank assets, and the net international investment position.
Our global models and tools

Global Economic and Strategic Allocation Models (GESAM)
Fathom’s GESAM, used to construct our Global Outlook, are among only a handful of commercially available macroeconomic models in the world. The models cover more than 80% of global GDP and incorporate data that stretch back 150 years. They are grounded in theory and estimated empirically. They are supported by a suite of financial tools and can be used to do scenario analysis. Combined, they offer our clients an unmatched understanding of the near-term prospects for the global economy and asset markets.

RiCArdo
Fathom’s RiCArdo database provides a detailed database of international trade flows in the high-tech sectors specified by President Xi’s Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025), since 2005. It covers more than 200 countries, which can be ranked by absolute trade flows in US dollars, by market share or by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Using RiCArdo, we can assess which countries it would impact most if China succeeded in its MIC 2025 plan. But for now, we find that China has only made limited progress in upgrading its vast manufacturing base since 2015, with its high-tech export share still lagging well behind Japan, Germany and the US on this measure. That’s not to say that it hasn’t gained market share, though: it has, and at the expense of the US.
Our China indicators
- China macroeconomic
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China macroeconomic
China Growth Strategy
Fathom’s China Growth Strategy (CGS) indicator combines four metrics which between them monitor China’s progress in external, internal and financial rebalancing. The component parts have been summed and z-scored to create the CGS. An upward shift in the measure indicates rebalancing, and a downward shift is indicative of doubling down on the old tried-and-tested growth strategies of the past.
- China housing
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China macroeconomic
China Momentum Indicator
This monthly indicator is a world-leading measure of China’s real growth rate. Having long been sceptical of China’s official GDP statistics, we have developed our own indicator to gain a better insight into that country’s economic activity. Our updated CMI 3.0 uses twelve indicators, and tracks a broader range of trade and housing data.
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China macroeconomic
China Non-Performing Loans
Despite signs of rising financial stress, China’s official non-performing loan ratio remains suspiciously low. For this reason, we publish our own estimate. This is presented as a range, with the lower value reflecting the steps China has taken to reduce the stock of NPLs in recent years, specifically the absorption of bad debt onto the PBoC’s balance sheet.
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China housing
China Time Taken to Finish Construction
Our proprietary measure uses the stock of floor space under construction and that completed each year to show the time taken to complete the construction of residential property in China. It reflects both the mothballing of properties in the construction phase as well as a reluctance to declare them as ‘vacant’ even when they are complete.
- China housing
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China housing
China Time Taken to Sell Completed Housing
This indicator shows that on a national basis, the sum of completed and vacant residential floor space roughly equals the amount sold per year. In other words, on average, in any given year, demand for housing has equalled supply. This has been made possible by extending construction times in China, as monitored by another of our proprietary indicators.
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China macroeconomic
China Urban Under-employment Indicator
China’s official urban jobless rate has barely budged over the last decade, despite huge fluctuations in the rate of economic growth over that period. Taking published estimates of labour productivity at face value, but using Fathom’s estimate of China’s underlying growth momentum in place of official GDP, we have produced our own estimate of spare capacity in China’s labour market.
Our China models and tools

Capital Flows Tracker
Our world-leading tool sheds light on China’s true investment patterns and strategic motivations and is particularly important as China faces increased scrutiny over its investment activity. The Capital Flows Tracker accurately monitors China and Hong Kong’s financial footprint since 2005 by bringing together and combining a range of diverse datasets. It disaggregates capital flows into M&A and greenfield investment, and is available bi-laterally and by sector. It includes the following details for each deal: country, company, sector, target address, deal status and deal value — including Fathom’s estimates where that information is not publicly available. It is updated through the year.

Centrality Tracker
The Centrality Tracker provides a comprehensive measure of the ties binding countries to the key economic powerhouses — China, the EU and the US. The tool covers more than 150 countries, which together account for more than 95% of global GDP. It includes detailed variables on trade, finance, commodities and development. The Tracker identifies underlying economic relationships since 2005, outperforming traditional macroeconomic models when assessing international spillovers from economic shocks such as COVID-19. It also casts new light on a variety of questions, such as: What is the size of, and sensitivity to, China’s economic and financial footprint in Africa? Is Latin America more closely aligned to the US, EU or China, and what has changed?

Fathom's Interaction with China and US Index
Fathom’s Interaction with China Index and Fathom’s Interaction with US Index provide detailed measures of China and the US’s engagement with every country in Africa, based on more than 100 variables each. They reveal that China’s interaction with Africa has increased significantly over the last 20 years, and in 2010 overtook US levels of engagement. China still remains ahead, despite increased energy from the US. But greater engagement with China tends to be worse for a country’s real GDP growth and GDP per capita. In other words, we find that engagement with China over the US is linked to worse outcomes in African countries. But being engaged with neither is worse still.
Get in touch
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