Data, models, tools
An extensive range of proprietary economic data, models, and tools underpins all the work we do. These inform our Global Outlook, as well as forming the basis of consultancy work as we design and develop bespoke solutions for clients
Live charts for some of Fathom’s proprietary indicators can be found in the Chartbook on LSEG Datastream. Our clients have access to the full range of our indicators in the website Chartbook, which can be found in the client zone.
Our global indicators
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Macroeconomic
Economic Resilience Index
The Economic Resilience Index measures an economy’s ability to withstand negative shocks. It considers a range of factors such as public debt, the current account, market regulation, governance, and voice and accountability.
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Macroeconomic
Economic Sentiment Indicators
The ESIs measure economic optimism and negativity by combining key information from numerous consumer and business surveys into a series of composite monthly indicators for major economies, suggesting whether sentiment is supportive of growth.
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Macroeconomic
Economic Vulnerability Index
This index measures an economy’s susceptibility to negative shocks. The index includes measures of income, trade openness, dependence on strategic imports and financial vulnerability. Higher scores are associated with more frequent recessions.
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Financial market
Fathom Leading Indicator
The FLI is a measure of expected macro conditions six months in the future and based on forecast global industrial production. It uses broad economic variables and reflects how market observers update expectations around the market cycle.
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Macroeconomic
Fathom Macroeconomic Policy Indicator
The FMPI weights together fiscal and monetary policy to give an overall indication of an economy’s macroeconomic policy stance. A positive score implies that macroeconomic policy is loose, while a negative score suggests that it is tight.
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Macroeconomic
Fathom Misery Index
The Fathom Misery Index combines the unemployment rate and inflation rate, two factors that can be painful to consumers. A high reading on the misery scale implies low consumer confidence and thus subdued consumer spending and economic growth.
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Geopolitical
Fathom Political Index
The FPI indicates a country’s level of political freedom, based on measures of voice and accountability, rule of law, corruption, and institution type. Higher FPI scores are broadly associated with better governance and improved economic outcomes.
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Financial market
Fathom Risk-Off Gauge
Fathom’s Risk-Off Gauge (FROG) provides a probabilistic assessment of market sentiment. The risk-on regime is characterised by higher returns and low volatility, while the risk-off regime features lower returns and higher market volatility.
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Financial market
Fathom’s Long-term Expected Returns
The FLEx model estimates long-term portfolio returns by looking at three components affecting outcomes: the risk-free rate, a long-term risk premium and a valuation adjustment. These are further refined by asset class and different investment horizons.
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Macroeconomic
Financial Vulnerability Indicator
The FVI assesses sovereign, currency, and banking risk for 176 countries. It combines sophisticated empirical techniques, academic literature, and large datasets into a timely set of country-level risk analysis indicators.
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Macroeconomic
Probability of Exit and Default
Using market pricing, Fathom’s indicators track investors’ perceptions of the risk of sovereigns defaulting or leaving the euro. Fathom has also constructed measures of the conditional probabilities (e.g., how likely one country is to default if another already has).
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Macroeconomic
Sovereign Fragility Index
The SFI is a composite indicator of sovereign financial fragility, independent of market judgment and fluctuations in the business cycle. It is based on fundamental macroeconomic drivers such as public debt and net international investment.
Our global models and tools
Global Economic and Strategic Allocation Models (GESAM)
Fathom’s GESAM, used to construct our Global Outlook, are among only a handful of commercially available macroeconomic models in the world. The models cover more than 80% of global GDP and incorporate data that stretch back 150 years. They are grounded in theory and estimated empirically. They are supported by a suite of financial tools and can be used to do scenario analysis. Combined, they offer our clients an unmatched understanding of the near-term prospects for the global economy and asset markets.
RiCArdo
Fathom’s RiCArdo database provides a detailed database of international trade flows in the high-tech sectors specified by President Xi’s Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025), since 2005. It covers more than 200 countries, which can be ranked by absolute trade flows in US dollars, by market share or by revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Using RiCArdo, we can assess which countries it would impact most if China succeeded in its MIC 2025 plan. But for now, we find that China has only made limited progress in upgrading its vast manufacturing base since 2015, with its high-tech export share still lagging well behind Japan, Germany and the US on this measure. That’s not to say that it hasn’t gained market share, though: it has, and at the expense of the US.
Source: Fathom Consulting
Financial Vulnerability Indicator (FVI)
Financial crises have severe economic and political consequences, as well as being costly for investors. The capacity to predict these crises is valuable to both governments and private sector stakeholders. Fathom’s Financial Vulnerability Indicator (FVI) does just that, offering a comprehensive assessment of sovereign, currency and banking risk for 176 countries. Combining innovative econometric techniques, cutting-edge academic literature and large amounts of data, the FVI assesses the likelihood of crises occurring in each quarter.
Beyond the headline statistical probabilities, access to the full FVI dataset provides clients with an understanding of what drives potential crises that is presented in a user-friendly, interactive interface. The tool estimates the contribution of each variable to the probability of a crisis, allowing users to understand the source of vulnerabilities. Variables are also grouped into an intuitive set of narrative drivers (imbalances, flows, and reversals) and geographic factors (domestic vulnerabilities, global shocks and contagion effects). The transparency of the model and its economic rigour makes the FVI appealing to a wide range of clients.
Our China indicators
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China macroeconomic
China Exposure Index
The CEI measures US/Sino trade tensions through the relative share price performance of US-listed corporations with over 15% revenue exposure to China. Lower CEI values indicate higher trade tensions and the relative under performance of these firms.
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China macroeconomic
China Growth Strategy
The China Growth Strategy indicator combines eleven metrics to monitor China’s progress in external, internal and financial rebalancing. An upwards shift indicates rebalancing, while a downward shift indicates a doubling down on past growth strategies.
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China housing
China House Price-to-Income Ratio
This indicator measures the affordability of residential housing in China. It charts how many years it would take a typical household in different regions to pay for an average-sized house if they saved all their disposable income.
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China macroeconomic
China Non-Performing Loans
The NPL indicator is an independent estimate of China’s non-performing loan ratio, created to give a clearer picture than Beijing’s official numbers, which are suspiciously low given signs of financial distress in the economy.
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China housing
China Time Taken to Finish Construction
This measure records the time taken to complete residential properties in China. The results imply the ‘construction’ phase has been deliberately prolonged, to keep resources (including labour) tied up and to prevent social unrest in times of slow growth.
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China housing
China Time Taken to Sell All Housing
This indicator tracks the time taken to sell complete and incomplete housing in China. This time is between 3 and 6 years depending on the region. If uncompleted was released onto the market, a significant downward correction in housing prices would take place.
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China housing
China Time Taken to Sell Completed Housing
This indicator tracks China’s housing supply, showing that the sum of completed and vacant residential floor space is roughly equal to the amount sold per year. State intervention in the supply and demand of housing makes this possible.
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China macroeconomic
China Urban Under-employment Indicator
The CUUI uses published estimates of labour productivity in China and Fathom’s proprietary measure of the country’s underlying growth momentum to produce our own estimate of spare capacity in China’s urban labour market.
Our China models and tools
Capital Flows Tracker
Fathom’s world-leading Capital Flows Tracker sheds light on China and Hong Kong’s true investment patterns and strategic motivations, at a time when China faces increased scrutiny over its overseas acquisitions. The Tracker accurately monitors China and Hong Kong’s financial footprint since 2005 by reconciling a range of diverse datasets. It disaggregates capital flows into M&A and greenfield investment, and is available bi-laterally and by sector. It includes the following details for each deal: country, company, sector, target address, deal status and deal value — including Fathom’s estimates where that information is not publicly available. Data are updated twice a year.
Centrality Tracker
The Centrality Tracker provides a comprehensive measure of the ties binding countries to the key economic powerhouses — China, the EU and the US. The tool covers more than 150 countries, which together account for more than 95% of global GDP. It includes detailed variables on trade, finance, commodities and development. The Tracker identifies underlying economic relationships since 2005, outperforming traditional macroeconomic models when assessing international spillovers from economic shocks such as COVID-19. It also casts new light on a variety of questions, such as: What is the size of, and sensitivity to, China’s economic and financial footprint in Africa? Is Latin America more closely aligned to the US, EU or China, and what has changed?
Fathom's Interaction with China and US Index
Fathom’s Interaction with China Index and Fathom’s Interaction with US Index provide detailed measures of China and the US’s engagement with every country in Africa, based on more than 100 variables each. They reveal that China’s interaction with Africa has increased significantly over the last 20 years, and in 2010 overtook US levels of engagement. China still remains ahead, despite increased energy from the US. But greater engagement with China tends to be worse for a country’s real GDP growth and GDP per capita. In other words, we find that engagement with China over the US is linked to worse outcomes in African countries. But being engaged with neither is worse still.
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