The price of crude oil, like the prices of many other commodities, is volatile. Our first chart shows the price of a barrel of Brent crude since the early 1970s, adjusted for inflation. In real terms, oil prices, which had been broadly stable for more than a decade, rose by a factor of six between the late 1990s and the late 2000s, only to plummet as the global financial crisis hit, rebound as the recovery began, and fall sharply again...

Why oil might approach $20 per barrel