Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently suggested the current strength of the US jobs market makes an imminent US recession less likely. The US unemployment rate is at 3.4% and over 500,000 jobs were added in January. But the unemployment rate is not always a very timely indicator of recession. Jobless totals rose by more than a percentage point in the first six months of only six of the last eleven US recessions. [Please click below to read the full note.]