UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will likely exceed 3 per cent next month and remain at that level until mid-2027. While this is a presentational challenge for the Bank of England (BoE), we continue to believe that the next UK interest rate adjustment will be a cut, not a hike. This forecast assumes a slow, complex resolution of the conflict in the Middle East conflict, with fuel and utility prices staying high into 2027. However, food inflation will be