The threat of major power conflict is rising, and many see Taiwan as a potential flash point. The US and its partners may turn to methods of economic statecraft as a means to deter PLA aggression and degrade the PRC’s capabilities. The US should be able to rely on core allies, including the UK, for support in applying diplomatic, economic and financial pressure. However, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows that many countries will be happy to maintain existing diplomatic and economic ties with the PRC. What levers does Blue have to influence third countries? This interactive session explored this question.
This was a table-top exercise under Chatham House rules, exploring the role of non-aligned countries in a hypothetical crisis scenario. Participants played in groups as they sought to achieve their objectives.
Agenda
- Which levers are most effective in influencing the alignment of third countries?
- Participants considered three major types of action: diplomatic, economic and military
- Once the teams had made their strategic choices, Fathom drew on existing analysis to gauge the probabilities of success, before rolling the dice to see which objectives were achieved
- Economists from Fathom then outlined the major economic impacts from this scenario
