Introducing Fathom’s Global Outlook service

Fathom’s Global Outlook, Winter 2022

Blinded by the pivot?

Rate cuts are no panacea for global recession

Fathom Consulting is offering a free opportunity to hear insights from our latest Global Outlook – the independent and data-driven assessment of the prospects for the global economy, financial markets and geopolitics that we share with our clients individually each quarter.

Register below to book a private demonstration of our latest Global Outlook.

Inflation surprises have unwound somewhat in the US, and Europe. At the same time, the Fed has so far been more willing than its European peers to back up its hawkish rhetoric with action. Will non-US DMs get away with relatively modest hiking cycles, or is there much more monetary tightening to come?

For perhaps the first time on record, official institutions like the IMF are forecasting widespread recessions. However, the euro area has shown resilience and the US labour market remains strong. Meanwhile, China’s government has finally thrown in the towel on zero-COVID, offering a boost to growth later in the year. Is there a path for DM economies to escape contraction or is 2023 set to be a year of global recession?

US inflation data have surprised to the downside, and many investors are eyeing a potential ‘Fed pivot’ that could boost liquidity and lift the price of risk assets later in 2023. However, the economic outlook remains dark. We were risk-off for most of 2022 and continue to believe that investors are too focused on the outlook for monetary policy and not the outlook for the real economy.

Agenda

Inflation persistence

Can DM CBs pivot?

Recession Watch

China outlook in a post-COVID world

Strategy and asset allocation

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