Previous signs of divergence across the major economies have become clearer, with economic growth seeming to accelerate in the US, as the euro area and UK are in or on the verge of recession. That opens up the prospect of a variety of interest rate paths, with the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate later and by less than its major European counterparts. Looking forward, how does the outlook for economic activity and monetary policy diverge across the major developed economies?

2024 will be the biggest exercise in democracy in history, with the largest number of voters heading to the polls. We will look through the noise, and assess the important macro, economic and geopolitical implications from major plebiscites. If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marked ‘the beginning of history’, will elections this year accelerate that trend?

Truly understanding the economic situation in China remains challenging. Some commentators have suggested that economic growth is much weaker than the official data suggest, but our metrics do not identify any large discrepancy with the official data. In order to test this, we will compare our macroeconomic analysis with that of some financial markets to see if we can identify a different story. We will also draw on financial market pricing to gauge what is ‘priced in’ in terms of geopolitical risk.