Inflation has tended to be stickier than expected across many developed economies. That has lifted the expected path for short-term interest rates. However, the US economy continues to perform much better than its European peers. To what extent can this continue?

Our forecasts for long term interest rates have been too low. If we are in a higher-for-(much)-longer world, what does that imply for the outlook? Rather than being a headwind to economic growth, might higher interest rates aid creative destruction and boost productivity growth rates? Artificial intelligence is being rolled out and is another reason to think that productivity will grow more swiftly over the next decade than the previous one.

While the economic outlook may look bright, geopolitical tensions remain high and are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. What does this imply for the outlook? Which countries stand to benefit? And should we be worried about historically large budget deficits for where we are in the cycle?  India has disappointed both its optimists and its pessimists. Will that continue?

Some have pointed to a successful Chinese economic pivot from real estate to manufacturing. What evidence do we find for that? And would this strategy be consistent with a weaker renminbi?