Introducing Fathom’s Global Outlook service

 

Fathom’s Global Outlook, Winter 2023 

Fathom Consulting is offering a free opportunity to hear insights from our latest Global Outlook – the independent and data-driven assessment of the prospects for the global economy, financial markets and geopolitics that we share with our clients individually each quarter.

Register below to book a private demonstration of our latest Global Outlook.

The outperformance of the US  strengthened over the last quarter, but how long can it continue? The Fed seems likely to achieve an ‘immaculate disinflation’, but the recovery is now threatened by an increasingly fragile corporate sector. The conflict in the Middle East shows no immediate signs of letting up, but nor does it seem likely to spread more widely.  Markets are firmly in risk-on mode. Can we be confident that it is ‘Mission accomplished’ for the Fed, or should we fear a wave of corporate failures that could drive the economy back into recession, or of sticky inflation that could cause rates to stay higher for longer?

Most emerging markets look to be in good shape to withstand the impact of higher US rates, but there are always outliers, and Argentina is one. The President-elect has threatened dollarisation, but whether or not that threat materialises, there is a pronounced risk of a currency and/or sovereign crisis in Argentina.

China’s short-term outlook is stable if not electrifying, within an ongoing downtrend in long-term growth, with no sign of the ‘rebalancing’ that could improve that trend. The risks in the housing market are real and are evolving from threat to collapse right now, focused in the northern provinces. But there is a long-term strong upside for China, as long as it can persuade the developed world that it presents no threat. We will outline a set of scenarios for China that incorporate both our central view and risks to that projection, including a new, tech-based upside scenario.

Full participation in the so-called ‘fourth industrial revolution’ is how China will escape its long-term decline (if it succeeds in doing so). The US and other developed economies can and should participate fully as well, although the structure of their participation should reflect the different demographic challenges they face compared to China. Public R&D pays for itself many times over, sometimes over extremely long horizons. We set out a framework for thinking about how different countries should take advantage of AI and what impact it might have in the long term.

Agenda

Mission accomplished for the Fed?

Measuring corporate fragility: is a wave of corporate failures the next shoe to drop?

China is slowing, but is it feigning a ‘broken wing’

The fourth industrial revolution is underway, but who will drive it?

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Please complete the form below to book your presentation. You will be then contacted by someone from Fathom to arrange a time and the necessary logistics. The webinars usually last about one hour, with plenty of time in there for discussion, and can involve as many people present from your side as you wish.

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