The global economy continues to show resilience, corroborating our decision to drop our forecast of a global recession in 2023. However, monetary policy typically operates with long and variable lags. Even as central banks pause, the impact from prior hikes will continue to work their way through the system.
Where should we be looking for signs of pain? And when?
The US share of G7 GDP has continued to rise and is near multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, average incomes have pulled away, too. American dominance in the macroeconomy is even more pronounced in financial markets, with public US firms accounting for half of the total global market capitalisation. What explains this American exceptionalism? Or does the fault lie with policymakers in Europe?
We will take a look at both what we think should happen and what we think is most likely to happen.
China’s economic recovery from zero-COVID has already petered out, with the youth unemployment rate continuing to drift higher. The consensus is moving towards our pessimistic outlook for the Middle Kingdom. With ongoing trouble in the housing market, there is a chance that things could get even worse.
We will outline a set of scenarios for China that incorporate both our central view and risks to that projection.