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Spotting UK recessions

We at Fathom have spent the past few weeks visiting our clients, and presenting our thoughts on the outlook for the global economy and its financial markets. As regular readers will be aware, our UK view is somewhat gloomy. While most major economies are enjoying a cyclical upswing, the UK, we explain, is on the verge of what is likely to be a relatively mild recession, driven by falling household expenditure. We may be more bearish than the consensus, but of course that does not mean that we are wrong. Put simply, economists as a group are not very good at spotting recessions, even when one is staring them in the face…

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