The key takeaway from Fathom’s Global Outlook, Autumn 2026, our flagship global macroeconomic forecast, is that for all the impressive advances in AI technologies in recent years, the economics behind the current capex boom do not work. Since it is hard to know when a bubble will burst, our central scenario assumes that for now it continues to grow. We place a 30% weight on it bursting in 2027; and we explore an AI upside scenario, where adoption is slow