The International Monetary Fund has issued a revised forecast of just 3.3% growth for China this year, in a further signal that Beijing’s ambitious 5.5% target is looking increasingly unattainable. The IMF’s latest forecast in its World Economic Outlook Update, revised down from 4.4%, is now below the current Reuters consensus expectations of economists, which stand at 4%. It came as little surprise to Fathom Consulting, however, as we predicted Chinese growth of just 2.8% for 2022 in our Global Outlook forecast on 8 June – a figure we see no reason to revise. So what is the backdrop to the downbeat growth forecast and what will be the factors in play going forwards?
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