A pause in hostilities, amid the rising tensions with the US, will allow China to focus on its domestic imbalances exacerbated by weak domestic demand We think Beijing will maintain focus on targeting technological self-sufficiency and investment in high-value industries, (although there may be some policy support to prevent demand from deteriorating further) Our central scenario for China’s outlook up to 2040 suggests this strategy will only succeed to a degree and that existing imbalances will limit the positive growth