China’s chokehold over the extraction and processing of many key minerals has worried policymakers for years. Recent threats from Beijing to restrict exports of key inputs, from graphite to rare earths, have brought those concerns sharply into the public eye. These materials are essential for a wide range of strategic industries, including electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines, defence applications and advanced electronics. Any disruption to their supply has the potential to slow the global energy transition, raise production costs and increase geopolitical tensions.

This research note uses detailed data on production and trade flows to quantify just how tight China’s grip on critical minerals really is. Fathom’s work shows that China currently accounts for around 75% of global graphite extraction and close to 70% of rare earth supply, far above the market shares typical in other commodity markets. The picture looks even more concerning once China’s network of allies and close partners is taken into account. When you add countries whose interests are closely aligned with Beijing’s, the share of global supply effectively controlled by that bloc becomes larger still.

This analysis is based on a selection of the proprietary data underpinning Fathom’s China Subscription Service. Subscribers can access the full dataset, covering a much wider set of critical minerals at the country level, as well as additional analysis and insight, highlighting the risks and opportunities in an increasingly fragmented world.