Last month Fathom’s economists focused their attention on the highly uncertain global macroeconomic picture and whether an economic downturn was looming. We explored why there are fewer recessions these days, why the jobless rate is a poor leading indicator of recession, whether current US market pricings are too optimistic, and whether an upward creep in EA inflation swap rates will herald more aggressive ECB tightening. Read on for a round-up of some of the economic insights Fathom sent to clients in February.

Where have all the recessions gone?

Unemployment and recession 

US outlook that markets are pricing in

EA inflation expectations on the rise 

[Please click below to read the full note.]