• Global slowdown as tightening takes hold, but the fortunes of the major economies are diverging
  • The US narrowly avoids recession, but the euro area and UK do not; China slows
  • With inflation past its peak and recession risks still elevated, real rates come down more quickly than is priced in by financial markets
  • The US has led the G7 on productivity for decades, while the UK trails behind on almost all metrics
  • The dynamism of the US is set to continue over the medium term, while the main factor holding back the UK is a shortfall in R&D spending

The fortunes of the major economies are diverging

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