In this preview we outline some of the main changes to our forecast since our Global Outlook, Summer 2025. Over the past three months, outline agreements have been put in place between the US and several of its major trading partners that see the US imposing unilateral import tariffs, typically in the range 10%–15% Although the worst-case scenarios that we set out three months ago have been avoided, more substantial tariff increases have been imposed on other countries with which