Much has happened since our last Global Outlook was published in February 2025; the effective U.S. tariff rate peaked at more than 30% but has since fallen to about 13% Meanwhile, the S&P 500 briefly fell below 5000 before recouping all of this year’s losses As a prelude to our latest forecast we quote John Maynard Keynes, who observed in 1936 that economists had been guilty of incorrectly dismissing as ‘puerile’ the obsession that some politicians (and voters) had with