The world is misreading the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an inflation shock; it is primarily a growth shock. Unlike the 1970s and the post-COVID episodes, which were both driven by price spikes, this crisis will destroy economic activity before inflation can take hold, meaning Central Banks may not need to hike as much as many believe. We assess three scenarios for the Strait; in our central, ‘Slow and messy’ (50% probability), it opens soon, but in an