Fathom’s views on the US interest rate outlook are close to consensus: we expect cuts before the end of next year. But equity investors are focusing too much on the pivot and not enough on the reason for it — the coming recession. In our Global Outlook, Winter 2022, we explain why we maintain high probabilities of recession in the coming year, in the euro area (90%), the UK (90%) and the US (70%). While our central view is that…