Fiscal vulnerability was a theme that ran through our Global Outlook, Autumn 2025. We found that, among the major economies, the UK, France and the US appeared most likely to suffer a sudden fiscal crisis. Japan, despite having substantially more debt as a share of its GDP than any other G7 nation, was only mid-table in our risk rankings. In our Global Outlook, Winter 2025, we dug a little deeper into the situation confronting Japan and concluded that, amid signs