In our Global Economic and Markets Outlook for 2020 Q4, a preview of which was sent to clients earlier this week, we present a central scenario where the global economic recovery continues uninterrupted. We use high-frequency smartphone data to conclude that, on a cautious assessment, around one-half of the fall in global economic activity through the first half of this year was recovered during the third quarter. Very few major economies publish monthly estimates of GDP, but where these data are available, they point to a V-shaped recovery. Canada had made up around one-half of its lost output by June, while both Norway and the UK had done so by July.
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