This note explains how a prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to oil prices above $170 per barrel and a global recession. The central scenario that Fathom outlined in our Global Outlook, Spring 2026 last week, with oil prices at around $70 per barrel, remains the most likely state of affairs in the medium term, in our view; but the balance of risks to growth and equities has tilted to the downside over the last week, while