Mexico’s economy is slowing, and not for the first time. Private consumption appears to be slowing too, after a bounce from several increases in the minimum wage. Coupling this with potential headwinds to investment, government consumption and trade, it becomes hard to construct an optimistic near-term outlook for Mexico Further rises in US tariffs could dramatically increase sovereign risk. Even if Mexico escapes a crisis now, it still faces deep structural challenges. This research note analyses Mexico’s economic outlook using