• The US economy has dodged recession for now, helping to lift risk assets
  • Despite another upside surprise for headline payrolls, there are signs the labour market is cooling
  • Base effects open the door for a Fed pause but not a pivot (yet)
  • Recession and sticky inflation are two key uncertainties, leaving risks to the outlook for fed funds rate in both directions

[Please click below to read the full note.]

US markets are buoyed by better macro news