• Russia’s economy has coped better with sanctions than many forecasters estimated after they were imposed in 2022 — indeed, the IMF’s latest forecast for Russian GDP in 2026 is little changed from its pre-war October 2021 estimate
  • Part of the reason for that has been a pivot in Russia’s trade, with the country able to find new markets for its commodities exports; part of it has also been Russia’s ability to find new sources of supply for critical imports with dual military and civilian use
  • Fathom tracks the international flow of a set of goods that the UK government has deemed ‘High Priority’ and dual use, including ‘electronic components such as integrated circuits and radio frequency (RF) transceiver module’

Change in 'High Priority' exports to Russia, USD billions, 2019 to 2023

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