We see the protests in Hong Kong as the biggest known unknown for global investors. Our central case is for an extended period of limbo, but there is the possibility of a potentially severe resolution. Outside of FX, these risks do not appear to be reflected in asset markets. Economic discontent has been mooted as a factor behind dissatisfaction among protesters, but the breadth of support among the population alongside the persistence of demonstrations hint at something more than anger...

The Hong Kong problem