The outlook for UK inflation remains increasingly uncertain, a state of affairs which is illustrated by the Monetary Policy Committee’s highly unusual decision not to nominate any of its three scenarios for oil prices and inflation as a central scenario in the April Monetary Policy Report. This is only the second time this has occurred – the first was in May 2020. In Fathom’s forthcoming Global Outlook, Summer 2026, our central scenario, named ‘Slow and messy’, describes a future where