This note focuses on the UK economic outlook, including month-to-month forecasts for Bank Rate and both CPI and RPI inflation. The aim is to keep clients who are focused on the UK economy informed in between the editions of our more comprehensive quarterly Outlook. In Fathom’s Global Outlook, Spring 2024, we described two broad macroeconomic scenarios. In the single most likely scenario, which we labelled ‘Back to BC’ (Before Covid), there had been no material change in the monetary transmission