After a prolonged period of tapering, the ECB finally appears ready to draw the curtains on its quantitative easing programme at the end of this year. In addition, we expect the central bank to begin raising rates by September next year, sooner than markets expect. But, is the ECB already behind the curve? Our analysis suggests a more positive output gap in the aggregate than many others realise, with the ECB risking a bout of above-target inflation if it delays...