Energy and climate

Energy shocks, climate scenarios and transition opportunities, built for industry

Fathom helps organisations understand how changes in energy markets, regulation and physical climate risks could affect strategy, operations and financial performance.

Our economists combine rigorous, tailored analysis with Fathom’s proprietary global economic models and databases to answer complex questions and give clear economic and business implications. Our models integrate trade, energy, industry and supply-chain data across 180+ countries and 65 industries, allowing us to assess the full spectrum of energy and climate risks.

We build bespoke climate scenarios, quantify operational and strategic impacts, test assumptions against regulatory scenarios and identify the right mitigations. Our economists help clients cut through the noise, identifying the implications of energy and climate scenarios. This includes working with frameworks such as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) while keeping the focus on the practical questions clients need answered.

Our analysis delivers expert-led forecasts, policy advice and research, with direct access to Fathom’s economists through Fathom on-call.

Climate economics

We can help you

Identify energy and climate risks and opportunities

Model tailored energy and climate scenarios

Navigate regulatory requirements

Stress test operations and supply chains

Inform investment and strategic decisions

Turn complex analysis into clear insights

Talk to our energy and climate team

The kinds of questions we can answer

How will the energy transition affect my organisation, portfolio or industry?

Understand climate-related risks and opportunities across countries, sectors and industries, and how these evolve across different transition pathways.

What would an oil or gas price shock mean for my organisation or portfolio?

Assess the impacts of energy price shocks and wider shifts in global energy markets on operations, portfolios and investment exposure.

Who are the winners and losers from the transition to net zero?

Assess countries’ exposure to transition risks alongside their ability to manage these risks and take advantage of opportunities in clean energy, technology and transition minerals.

How exposed are we to physical climate risks?

Explore how physical risks evolve across different transition pathways and quantify how exposure, preparedness and resilience shape the economic impact.

Our data, models and tools

Our energy and climate work is supported by our suite of proprietary economic models, datasets and analytical tools.

Quantifying which countries will win or lose from the energy transition

Energy Transition Scores

A unique and powerful dataset outlining the risks and opportunities 186 countries face from the energy transition.

This dataset helps clients to:

  • Identify transition winners, losers and the risks and opportunities driving each country’s position
  • Assess investment and growth opportunities alongside country-specific challenges and potential rewards, through to 2050
  • Consider supply-chain vulnerabilities, potential alternatives and transition leaders and laggards

Scores are broken down across factors including clean energy potential, transition minerals, cleantech capabilities, economic dependency on fossil fuels, political pressure to transition, stranded assets and ability to respond. This helps clients to move beyond abstract climate scenarios to understand how the transition could affect economies in practice.

Download the Energy Transition Scores flyer

Fathom’s proprietary macroeconomic models

Global Economic and Strategic Allocation Models (GESAM)

Our Global Economic and Strategic Allocation Models underpin all of our work, and are among only a handful of commercially available macroeconomic models in the world.

Covering more than 80% of global GDP and incorporating data stretching back 150 years, the models are grounded in economic theory, estimated empirically and supported by a suite of tools.

Within our energy and climate work, GESAM can be used to:

  • Explore different climate, energy and policy scenarios and their wider macroeconomic implications
  • Assess how transition pathways could affect economies, sectors and asset markets
  • Quantify the economic and financial impacts of shocks, including changes in energy prices and climate-related policy

Model pathways to aviation decarbonisation

Aviation Decarbonisation Model

Our Aviation Decarbonisation Model helps policymakers and businesses understand the costs, risks and opportunities associated with different ways to decarbonise aviation.

Available to clients via an interactive dashboard, it allows users to alter 17 assumptions to create scenarios, thus gaining insight into the drivers and the relative merits of different decarbonisation fuels including biofuels, e-kerosene and hydrogen-powered aviation

This model can be used to:

  • Compare the relative merits of different fuel types
  • Identify the optimal decarbonisation mix under different scenarios
  • Assess outcomes from both industry and societal perspectives
  • Support policy decisions, businesses and other stakeholders

Explore the Aviation Decarbonisation Model

Our work

Our energy and climate expertise has been applied across a range of strategic, policy and commercial questions for clients in the public and private sectors.

Reports

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Cover of Europe's flightpath to economic competitiveness report

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Case studies

Decarbonising European aviation
Decarbonising European aviation
What is the cheapest way for European aviation to reach net-zero while also stimulating the economy? Fathom built a model to provide answers in a range of different scenarios
View case study
Investment needs and risks for net zero
Investment needs and risks for net zero
Fathom's robust, macroeconomic estimate of how much investment is needed worldwide to reach the Paris climate goal is the first to break down investment needs by country and by industry sector
View case study
The impact of European climate policy
The impact of European climate policy
Fathom analysed the economic implications of EU and UK climate policies, green initiatives and related stimulus programmes, identifying possible risks and market opportunities
View case study

Testimonials

“We were very impressed with this work and it was delivered to the usual high standard we have come to expect from Fathom. The topic was clearly well researched, the analysis interesting and the findings useful for our workflow. Fathom kindly agreed to present the material to our Energy Transition taskforce and that was very well received too.”

Mitsubishi Corporation Finance LLC

“We have enlisted Fathom’s consultancy services numerous times over the years and have always enjoyed working with the team. Their latest project provided an impartial, evidence-based assessment of the economic impact of UK aerospace R&D, quantifying both the benefits within the industry and the wider spillover effects across the economy out to 2070. The findings were communicated in clear, accessible language and supported by intuitive visualisations that brought the data to life and made it easy to understand. We particularly valued the wider economic context that Fathom provided through its proprietary trade data and analysis, which demonstrated that the UK’s aerospace industry is the jewel in the crown of UK high-tech manufacturing, ranking among the best in the world.”

Andrew Brough, Head of Analytics & Economics, Aerospace Technology Institute, 2026

“We have been working with Fathom for a number of years. I find their insights interesting and valuable. We have commissioned discrete projects with them which have helped us conclude on strategic decisions. The team are particularly good at presenting their view and backing it up with strong rationale under challenge.”

Investment Director, Octopus Investments

Meet the team

Brian oversees Fathom’s economic forecasting and scenario-building services. He has extensive experience working with clients from the public and private sectors and running large consultancy projects to ensure delivery of world-class products and services. Brian also leads Fathom’s energy and climate-related work, and has substantial expertise in building and managing large datasets, models and tools.

Contact Brian

Photo of Matt Weston Head of Macro-Finance Advisory at Fathom Consulting

Matt is responsible for overseeing our advisory work with financial sector clients, supporting them directly on a wide range of economic topics and analytical issues, which includes utilising our suite of high-powered tools and economic models. He manages the development of some of Fathom’s key modelling tools to provide on-demand economic insight, scenarios and analysis.

Contact Matt

Vijay works primarily on climate-related consultancy projects, including research on the most feasible ways to decarbonise European aviation. He also contributes to Fathom’s research output, specifically working on update notes about the UK’s macroeconomic environment.

Contact Vijay

Ellen contributes to various research and bespoke consultancy projects including managing Fathom’s Capital Flows Tracker — a verified measure of China and Hong Kong’s outbound investment. She is a subject matter expert in M&A, greenfield and venture capital activity.

Contact Ellen

Have an energy or climate question?

For more information about our energy and climate services or to discuss your needs and how we can help, please fill out the form below.

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