A global recession is coming: here’s why

Fathom Consulting // Insights // A global recession is coming: here’s why

The global economy is booming, led by the US. That boom will run for another year at least. But inflation in the US is already rising, and it will rise further in our central forecast (50% likelihood). In that scenario, higher inflation will lead to higher policy rates, widening risk spreads and, ultimately, sharp falls in equity prices, triggering a global recession in 2020 – something we have been calling for in our central case for six months (and had…