• The worst of the news on growth and inflation is probably in the past
  • Markets concur, with positive returns on bonds and equities, and lower market-implied risks of crises
  • Nevertheless, in our central case a slight recession is still coming in most advanced economies, especially the UK – a ripple from the storm that was induced by COVID
  • And a rising tide of second-round effects on inflation cannot yet be ruled out

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Recession has been the dog that didn't bark