It is somewhat tautological to point out that an economy can operate above normal capacity only for so long. Ultimately, factor utilisation rates, and with them output, must return to normal levels — or worse. What goes up must come down. But when, how far, and how fast? In ‘The dawning of a new error?’, we drew attention to that fact that, although Fathom’s forecasts for actual growth across the major economies over the next one to two years were