China: dual circulation and AI

16 October 2026|Tags: , |

Every transaction, every asset, that is denominated in a particular currency, has an impact on the nation issuing that currency. It’s all part of the same economy. But what if the same country issues more than one currency? This is probably a closer approximation to the Chinese situation: one currency for use at home; another one for use abroad. Two circulations. Does this mean there are two Chinese economies? Not quite: there is only one issuer. Questions around the solvency

What are words worth in the age of AI?

2 October 2026|Tags: |

Now that you can make almost infinite words at pretty much zero cost, does that mean that the value of a word is now zero? Not good for professional writers, or strategists, or anyone who communicates the value of their work through words. Is it a resistance to this displacement, which is causing increasing backlash against AI writing? (‘Slop’)? Or is it perhaps a sense that a lot of what it is to be human is expressed in language, and

Take away AI and what’s left?

11 September 2026|Tags: |

The AI boom whose epicentre is the US economy has been driven by extraordinary valuations of the principal AI companies and by colossal fixed investment supporting their growth. The US economy has diverted its resources into the AI industry: what if it’s a bubble? What if it’s all predicated on the delivery of something (artificial general or super-intelligence, AGI or ASI) that will never arrive? If the bubble bursts, it will hurt the US but, as usual, it will probably

Playing with fire: AI games

4 September 2026|Tags: , |

Let’s play. Those words, delivered to a small group of like-minded people you trust, are the surest way I know of finding a creative solution to some problem. But the mood that makes play possible is fragile: one difficult person, one sharp comment, and it vanishes like a soap bubble and you will struggle to recover it. So when we set out to invite a room of 100 people to play, it was with some trepidation. These were highly successful,

The role of AI in techno-economic competition

5 June 2026|Tags: , , |

Today’s blog is something a little different – I’m sharing the video version of our latest special edition podcast episode on AI and US-China techno-economic competition. Last month I caught up with David Lin from the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) at the 2026 SCSP AI+ Expo in Washington DC. We’ve known each other for about four years now, since Fathom wrote a report for the SCSP about the future of AI and techno-economic competition between the US and China